Poland’s right-wing opposition is seeking to turn the successful recall of Kraków Mayor Aleksander Miszalski into a broader campaign tool, with other large cities now discussed as potential targets before next year’s parliamentary election.

Miszalski, a regional leader of the ruling Civic Coalition party, was removed in a local referendum on May 24, barely two years into his term. Nearly 98% of voters backed his removal.

Overall turnout was almost 30%, above the 26.98% threshold needed to make the vote binding, ending Miszalski’s hopes that Kraków residents would boycott the referendum.

A separate vote on dismissing the entire city council failed because turnout did not meet the minimum threshold.

For Law and Justice (PiS), which campaigned heavily against Miszalski, the result offers a rare local victory in a large city dominated by liberal politics and a possible template for challenging Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s camp outside parliament.

PiS and its tactical ally, the far-right Konfederacja party, hope to channel voter discontent against mayors linked to Civic Coalition, the main party in the ruling coalition, which has struggled to deliver at the national level.

Support for the incumbent government now stands at 33%, while opponents account for 42%, a monthly poll by the state-run pollster CBOS showed on May 21.

Some 35% of respondents now rate the government’s work positively, down 5pp from April, while negative assessments rose to 51% from 47%, the poll also showed.

Tusk is also struggling in the polls. The government’s weaker ratings were accompanied by a further decline in support for the prime minister. In May, 35% of respondents said they were satisfied with Tusk as head of government, down 2pp from April, while 52% disapproved of him in the role, up 3pp.

Tusk, you're next

Against that background, PiS and Konfederacja framed the Kraków vote as a national warning to the ruling coalition, giving local referendums value as rolling campaign events ahead of the 2027 vote.

PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński said the Kraków vote was “only the beginning”. PiS MP Przemysław Czarnek, the party’s current candidate to become the next prime minister, said Tusk would be next.

Still, the Kraków revolt grew out of local grievances, especially anger over the Low Emission Zone, city debt, allegations of mismanagement at municipal companies and nepotism, rather than directly from dissatisfaction with the government.

Recall referendums are being planned or discussed in several large cities, including Rzeszów, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Kielce, Radom and Chorzów, according to media reports.

The most advanced PiS-linked move appears to be in Rzeszów, where RMF FM reported that two motions for a referendum against Mayor Konrad Fijołek had already been filed with the city council after the consequential Kraków vote.

Poland’s third-biggest city, Wrocław, is another target, although previous attempts to force a referendum against Mayor Jacek Sutryk failed at the signature-collection stage.

For a recall referendum to be binding, turnout must reach at least three-fifths of the turnout recorded in the relevant mayoral election.

That means a successful campaign in a mayor’s favour would usually focus on boycotting the vote, the strategy Miszalski’s camp tried — and failed — to use, unless there are signs that the opposition movement can mobilise enough voters seeking to remove the official.

However, that raises the bar for successfully defending targeted mayors because turning out to vote to keep them in office also increases turnout, which is what recall campaigns need, as local referendums are not typically popular in Poland.

To keep their mayors in place, liberal voters would need to turn out in numbers similar to those seen in regular elections, a difficult result to achieve outside the normal electoral cycle, especially if a mayor’s popular standing has deteriorated.

Following the dismissal of the Kraków mayor, the city will be governed by an interim commissioner before a new mayoral election, which is due within 90 days of the referendum date.