Bulgaria has barely had time to celebrate joining the eurozone monetary union at the start of this year before the European Commission is set to turn around and throw it into the rapidly growing financial delinquents club. Bulgaria is about to breach the 3% of GDP. budget deficit threshold that will trigger the EC’s excessive deficit procedure (EDP).

The EDP is for wayward member states that have not stuck to the various budget and financial limits agreed in Maastricht that are supposed to underpin the economic stability of the Union. The trouble is, Bulgaria is not the only one: if everyone in the EU were forced to reapply for membership today and obliged to meet the Maastricht criterion, less than five of the current 27 members would qualify.

Bulgaria’s humiliation comes after years of austerity precisely in order to qualify for euro membership in January 2026. Now that it's in the club, it looks like the government has decided to have a blowout.

Sofia's 2025 budget deficit climbed to 3.5% of GDP, breaching the EU's 3% threshold. The Commission expects the deficit to worsen to 4.1% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027 — a trajectory that, if uncorrected, would put Bulgaria's eurozone membership under strain within years of joining.

Prime Minister Rumen Radev has blamed a "burst bubble" and a heavy inherited fiscal legacy from his predecessors. The Commission is unlikely to be sympathetic to this blame game: excessive deficit procedures come with binding spending recommendations, reputational damage and, ultimately, the threat of financial penalties.

Bulgaria joins eleven other EU member states on the deficit naughty stair that are subject to the same procedure. And the list includes some of the bloc's largest and most powerful economies — France, Italy, Poland and Belgium among them — exposing a fundamental dysfunction at the heart of European economic governance. Sofia will be annoyed as the bloc is threatening to enforce fiscal discipline on its newest member but simultaneously ignoring years of serial rule-breaking by its founding members.

EU excessive deficit offenders

On 26 July 2024, the Council formally launched excessive deficit procedures against seven member states — Belgium, France, Italy, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Hungary — and kept Romania's procedure open. Austria and Finland have since been added, making eleven countries currently subject to EDP. Bulgaria will become the twelfth.

Romania: The longest-running case. Romania has been under excessive deficit procedure since 2020 — six years — and the Council adopted a revised, tougher recommendation in June 2025 after determining that Bucharest had failed to take effective action. Romania must end its excessive deficit situation by 2030. The 2025 deficit came in at approximately 7.9% of GDP — nearly three times the limit and the worst in the EU. Defence spending and social transfers are the primary drivers. The incoming Tisza government of Peter Magyar has inherited a fiscal position that is deteriorating rather than improving.

France: The largest economy in breach. France's EDP was launched in July 2024 based on a 2023 deficit of 5.5% of GDP. Its 2025 deficit came in at 5.1%. The Council has given Paris until 2029 to correct the situation — the longest timeline granted to any member state, reflecting France's political clout and the scale of fiscal adjustment required. President Macron's repeated inability to pass a credible budget has been the central driver. The government is bound to keep net expenditure growth at 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% annually through 2029 — a severe constraint that no French government has yet shown it can meet.

Poland: The second-largest deficit in the EU at approximately 7.3% of GDP in 2025. Poland's EDP was opened in July 2024. The Council recommended that Warsaw bring the excessive deficit to an end by 2028, keeping annual net expenditure growth to 6.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026. The deficit is being driven by surging defence spending — Poland is targeting 5% of GDP on defence — combined with social transfers. Warsaw has made no secret of its view that military spending justified by Russia's aggression should be excluded from EDP calculations. Brussels has so far disagreed.

Belgium: Belgium's EDP was opened in July 2024 based on its 4.4% deficit. The Council initially set a 2027 correction deadline, then revised it to 2029 after determining Belgium had not submitted an adequate fiscal plan. Belgium's 2025 deficit is approximately 5.2% of GDP. The country carries debt above 105% of GDP and faces rapidly rising age-related spending. Successive coalition governments have proved unable to agree to structural reforms. The irony of the country hosting EU institutions while being one of the bloc's worst fiscal performers is not lost on Brussels officials.

Italy: Italy's EDP was opened in July 2024. The Council recommended ending the excessive deficit by 2026, with net expenditure growth capped at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. Italy's 2025 deficit is approximately 3.4% of GDP — one of the smaller breaches in the current cohort — and the Meloni government has made credible fiscal consolidation a cornerstone of its economic policy. Italy carries the EU's largest debt-to-GDP ratio after Greece at approximately 137%, giving it minimal fiscal space even if consolidation proceeds on track. As IntelliNews reported, the Iran war is fuelling a global inflation shock and has dramatically reduced everyone’s fiscal space to cope with the mounting crisis.

Hungary: Hungary's EDP was opened in July 2024 with a correction deadline of 2026. The Council recommended capping net expenditure growth at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026. Hungary's 2025 deficit came in at approximately 4.7% of GDP — down from 6.7% in 2024 — but the incoming Tisza government is expected to inherit a deteriorating fiscal position driven by new household tax relief measures. Hungary's bond spreads over German yields exceed 400 basis points, giving it the most expensive borrowing costs in the EU after Romania.

Slovakia: Slovakia's EDP was opened in July 2024 with a correction deadline of 2027. Net expenditure growth is capped at 3.8% in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026 — a sharp tightening. Slovakia's deficit ran at approximately 4.5% of GDP in 2025. Prime Minister Robert Fico's government has pursued expansionary social spending while simultaneously blocking EU Ukraine support measures, creating tension with Brussels on multiple fronts.

Austria: Austria's EDP was opened in late 2025, based on its 4.7% deficit in 2024. Net expenditure growth is capped at 2.6% in 2025, 2.2% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Austria's fiscal deterioration has been rapid: the country was considered one of the EU's more disciplined economies until a combination of energy crisis spending, wage indexation and coalition dysfunction blew out its deficit in 2023-24.

Finland: Finland's EDP was opened in January 2026 based on a 4.4% deficit in 2024 and a planned 4.3% in 2025. The Council stipulated that Finland should present corrective measures by 30 April 2026. Finland's fiscal deterioration is largely attributable to the economic costs documented elsewhere in this publication of its strategic reorientation — the collapse of Russia trade, rising defence spending and the general economic slowdown.

Malta: Opened in July 2024 with a correction deadline of 2027. Malta's breach is relatively modest — a 3.7% deficit — but the island state's small size means structural fiscal pressures from healthcare and pension costs are disproportionately large relative to GDP.

The non-EU comparison

Russia: The list of fiscal rule-breakers does not end at the EU's borders. Russia's official federal budget deficit for 2025 came in at 2.6% of GDP — technically below the EU's 3% threshold — though Germany's BND intelligence service has estimated the true figure at approximately 3.6% of GDP after accounting for deliberate statistical concealment. Russia's consolidated budget deficit — which includes regional budgets and state social funds — reached 3.9% of GDP in 2025, well above the headline federal figure. The Iran war's oil price boost has improved Russia's April revenues significantly, but the first quarter 2026 alone produced a cumulative federal deficit of RUB4.6 trillion.

Ukraine: Ukraine presents the starkest contrast of all. Ukraine's government budget deficit is projected at approximately 18.8% of GDP in 2025, having reached 17.6% in 2024 and 20.3% in 2023 — a wartime fiscal position that is sustainable only because of the €193bn in external financing provided by the EU and its member states, much of it borrowed collectively. The EU is, in effect, deficit-financing a country running an 18% deficit using debt that will appear on European balance sheets for decades.