Prediction markets are pricing only a 2% probability of a US military strike on Iran on February 23, rising to 13% by February 27, according to data from Polymarket, the decentralised prediction platform, with total trading volume on the contract exceeding $372mn.

The "US strikes Iran by..." market, which runs to a June 30 deadline, has attracted significant trading interest, with the February 23 date alone recording more than $5mn in volume.

Odds rise steadily through the week, reaching 3% for February 24, 6% for February 25 and 9% for February 26, the date on which Iran and the United States are scheduled to hold a fresh round of nuclear talks in Geneva.

The data indicate broader market scepticism that Washington will move militarily in the immediate term despite a sharp escalation in rhetoric and an increasing military presence in the Sea of Oman and the Mediterranean.

The White House issued Tehran a 15-day ultimatum on February 21 to conclude a nuclear agreement or face potential strikes, while the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group is already positioned in the Arabian Sea, with the USS Gerald Ford reported to be en route.

Polymarket, which uses crowd-sourced trading to generate probability estimates, has become an increasingly watched indicator during geopolitical crises.

The platform noted in a statement on its Middle East markets page that prediction markets "could give answers that TV news and social media could not" to those directly affected by events in the region.

The rising odds through the week suggest traders view the Geneva talks on February 26 as a potential inflection point, with probabilities climbing on either side of that date.