Brazil is poised to be the biggest beneficiary of the new global tariff regime announced by US President Donald Trump in response to a landmark Supreme Court ruling which voided his blanket levies unveiled last year on "Liberation Day." But relief among Brazilian businesses remains guarded as Washington made clear it would press ahead with a separate trade investigation that could yet result in new levies against Latin America's largest economy.

The US Supreme Court on February 20 struck down much of Trump's tariff regime, deeming it unconstitutional. The president hit back by announcing a new flat global tariff of 15% — the maximum level permitted under existing law — by exploiting a different legal mechanism which is expected to come into effect on February 24 for an initial period of 150 days, pending congressional authorisation for any extension.

According to an analysis by independent trade monitoring body Global Trade Alert cited by both Folha and Estadão, Brazil will see the largest reduction in average import tariff rates of any country under the new regime — a fall of 13.6 percentage points.

China would see the next largest reduction, at 7.1 percentage points, followed by India at 5.6 percentage points. Historic US allies including the UK, Italy and Singapore, which had previously enjoyed lower tariffs, will see their rates rise under the flat 15% structure, Estadão reported.

The context makes the shift particularly significant for Brazil. At the height of trade tensions, Brazilian goods faced a combined tariff of 50%, made up of a 10% reciprocal rate plus a 40% punitive surcharge linked to the alleged political persecution of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, a close Trump ally. Brazilian exports to the US fell 6.6% in 2025 to $37.7bn as a result, according to Estadão.

“This has greatly helped the competitiveness of Brazilian products, allowing us to export more to the US, conquer more market share, and generate jobs and sales in Brazil. And it's fair, because the average import tariff for US products in Brazil is 2.7%," Vice-President and acting President Geraldo Alckmin told reporters over the weekend, as cited by Folha.

He highlighted that certain sectors — including fuel, meat, coffee, orange juice, cellulose and aircraft — would now face zero tariffs. In the aeronautics sector, where aircraft manufacturer Embraer is a global leader in regional jets with its largest market in the US, the rate fell from 10% to zero.

"If you look at Embraer, it's impossible to have an aircraft factory that only sells to the domestic market," Alckmin said.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, speaking at a press conference in New Delhi at the end of a three-day trip to India on February 22, declined to comment on the Supreme Court ruling itself but said the development represented "relief for many countries that were taxed at 50%, 40%."

He said he planned to tell Trump at a meeting expected in March that Brazil does not want a "new Cold War" and wants "equal relations with all countries."

Despite the positive headline, Brazilian industry's reaction was one of cautious celebration rather than outright relief, O Globo reported. A key uncertainty is whether the Supreme Court ruling applies retroactively and how the US customs agency CBP will translate it into operational guidance.

"The Supreme Court's decision is not immediate. There will be a CBP regulation outlining how the suspension will work," former Secretary of Foreign Trade Welber Barral said.

Sector reactions varied. The machinery and equipment industry, subject to 50% tariffs until the Supreme Court’s ruling, projected potential export growth of around 10% in 2026 — roughly reversing last year's losses — though its association Abimaq cautioned that tariffs could rise again and emphasised the importance of a negotiated agreement.

The fishing industry, also subject to 50% levies, was broadly positive, with Abipesca noting that even a 10% baseline would represent a dramatic improvement. The footwear sector, which had estimated a 15% drop in exports this year under the 50% regime, urged caution pending further clarification, O Globo reported.

For the instant coffee sector — which lost roughly half of its US export volumes after the 50% surcharge remained in place even as unprocessed coffee was exempted — the ruling offers the prospect of recovering lost ground, though industry executives warned recovery would not be immediate.

Márcio Ferreira, president of the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council Cecafé, told O Globo that many orders had been postponed or closed at reduced margins, and that new US customs guidelines would need to be published before flows normalised.

He called for a bilateral agreement like the deal Washington struck with Indonesia this week as the most durable solution.

The shadow over all of this is the ongoing Section 301 investigation, which the Office of the US Trade Representative explicitly said it would continue, alongside new investigations it may open.

The probe, launched in July 2025, covers a wide range of Brazilian practices including the domestic instant payment system Pix, digital commerce regulation, intellectual property, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation, O Globo reported.

"If these investigations conclude that unfair trade practices exist and that corrective measures are justified, tariffs are one of the tools that can be imposed," the USTR said in a statement.

Alckmin acknowledged the concern, but expressed confidence that the issues would be resolved, hailing Pix as "an example to the world."