Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned parliament on September 17 that Russia was about to step up hybrid attacks against countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland, in the coming months, with ostensibly accidental drone or missile strikes designed to test Nato’s resolve.

Tusk said domestic and allied intelligence assessments indicated Moscow was now pursuing a new war strategy aimed at damaging Ukraine’s economy and logistics, including through repeated attacks on major cities, warehouses, rail infrastructure and energy facilities. 

Late autumn and winter could be the war's most critical period so far, Tusk said.

“In the Russian plan, according to intelligence assessments, there are also hybrid drone and missile strikes on countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland,” Tusk also said.

The prime minister said Moscow would likely dress up such attacks as mere accidents to weaken allies’ willingness to respond and create the impression that Nato’s Article 5 was “more theoretical than practical”.

Tusk said that the Baltic States and Poland were next in line of Russia's aggression and that Warsaw must ensure its allies will help in the event of escalation.

Tusk also pointed to Russia’s growing use of faster, higher-flying jet-powered drones and said recent attacks close to Poland’s border had involved armed systems of this type, against which few countries have worked out effective countermeasures so far.

Poland is reinforcing air defence and protective infrastructure at its border crossings with Ukraine.

The warning in the parliament followed a security meeting held earlier this week after a Russian drone struck a Kyiv-Warsaw train close to the Polish border. Tusk said then that Poland should expect intensified Russian activity in the coming weeks and months.

Poland had seen a series of incidents inspired by Russia over the past two years. In one of the most serious cases, in November last year, an explosive device destroyed a section of the railway track on the Warsaw–Lublin route.

In May 2024, saboteurs hired by Russia set fire to a shopping centre in Warsaw, destroying it completely.