Poland’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% on October 7, maintaining its monetary policy pause despite rising fuel prices pushing inflation above target in September.

The widely expected decision came after annual consumer price inflation accelerated to 4% in September from 3.4% in August, according to a recent flash estimate by the statistical office GUS. The inflation rate thus exceeded the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) 2.5% target, with a tolerance band of one percentage point either way.

Higher fuel prices accounted for most of the increase, while core inflation excluding food and energy probably eased slightly, the NBP said in its communiqué following the October 6–7 meeting.

“The council’s future decisions will depend on incoming information concerning the outlook for inflation and economic activity in Poland,” the NBP said.

The central bank also cited fiscal policy, domestic economic activity, wage growth and regulatory decisions concerning energy prices as risks to inflation. The reference to energy regulation follows the government’s reintroduction of fuel price caps and tax reductions in October.

Current inflation prospects do not require higher rates, PKO BP said.

“We currently see no signs of intensifying second-round effects,” PKO BP said in a note, citing stable core inflation and a cooling labour market. The bank expects rates to remain unchanged through 2026.

The inflation outlook allows policymakers to delay raising rates while assessing the energy shock’s impact, ING Bank Śląski said. “There are no clear signs of broader price pressures in the economy,” ING said.

ING expects two 25-basis-point increases in early 2027, less than the approximately 100bp priced in by markets. NBP governor Adam Glapiński is expected to offer November’s updated inflation projections at a press conference on October 8.