ED – this is bne IntelliNews's annual Thailand OUTLOOK 2026 for the upcoming year, where we make a forward-looking assessment for all of the major Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world.

What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth and what problems lie in store in the coming year? A detailed report that covers, business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets. ENDS

Thailand’s economy in 2025 has shown signs of moderation but also masked a number of pockets of resilience. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth is expected to reach around 2.9% in 2025 - a modest increase from 2024, supported largely by a rebound in tourism, recovery in private consumption and public-investment programmes.

Domestic demand has been buoyed by fiscal stimulus and household-oriented policies, aiding consumption and helping to underpin growth even as external headwinds persist. Concurrently, tourism - a vital pillar of the economy - is returning toward pre-pandemic levels, helping to restore foreign-exchange inflows and supporting the services sector.

Inflation remained low, giving the authorities space for supportive monetary policy. Moreover, 2025 has seen renewed emphasis on innovation, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and efforts to strengthen Thailand’s longer-term global competitiveness.

These investments in infrastructure, consumer support and private-sector revitalisation reflect a strategy of balancing short-term economic support with structural resilience, especially in light of global economic uncertainty.

Political and institutional developments

On the political front, 2025 has been a year of incremental institutional evolution. One notable milestone was the formal enactment of the Marriage Equality Act (Thailand), with same-sex marriage becoming legal as of January 2025 - a development that signals progress on social policy and human-rights inclusion.

At the same time, the government has sought to maintain macro-economic and fiscal discipline amid competing demands on public spending - especially given demographic pressures and the need for social stability.

While reforms remain cautious, there is growing focus on building a diversified economic base, promoting innovation, and preparing Thailand for longer-term structural challenges rather than relying solely on traditional sectors like tourism or low-cost manufacturing.

Challenges and risks

Despite the modest rebound, growth remains well below pre-crisis norms and 2025 has exposed vulnerabilities. Global trade slowdowns, shifts in export demand and lingering structural weaknesses continue to weigh heavily on Thailand’s economic potential.

High household and corporate debt burdens, limited room for aggressive fiscal expansion, and dependence on tourism and consumption continue to make the economy vulnerable to external shocks.

Politically, while social reforms represent progress, deeper institutional reforms, especially those around governance, productivity and long-term economic diversification, remain necessary to deliver sustainable growth and inclusive development.

If Thailand successfully leverages its recovering tourism sector, sustains supportive fiscal and monetary policies, and accelerates structural reforms, especially in innovation, SME development and human-capital investment, it could lay the ground for a more diversified economy. Continued social-policy improvements may also strengthen social cohesion and support long-term stability.

However, achieving such an outcome will require steady political will by Bangkok, prudent macroeconomic management and a clear strategy to reduce vulnerability to global economic swings. Political turmoil at home will also need to be managed as will current military actions against neighbouring Cambodia. Without this, Thailand risks remaining stuck in a low-growth, high-vulnerability equilibrium.

Read the full Thailand OUTLOOK 2026 report here

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