ED – this is bne IntelliNews's annual Philippines OUTLOOK 2026 for the upcoming year, where we make a forward-looking assessment for all of the major Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world.

What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth and what problems lie in store in the coming year? A detailed report that covers, business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets. ENDS

The Philippines closed 2025 with notable economic resilience, despite global uncertainties and domestic pressures. According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessments, real GDP growth reached about 5.4 – 5.5%, supported by solid performance in services, sustained private consumption, and steady remittance inflows. Growth in the first quarter hit 5.4%, the fastest start to a year in recent quarters.

Inflation declined in 2025, calming earlier pressure on prices and enabling the central bank to ease policy rates - a move that helped sustain consumption and private-sector demand. Meanwhile, the current-account deficit narrowed and balance-of-payments pressures eased, strengthening macroeconomic stability.

On the structural front, the country advanced key reforms to support business and investment. New or updated legislation - such as investment-friendly fiscal and regulatory measures - helped attract fresh capital. At the same time, public investment in infrastructure and social services, under the new budget framework for 2025, provided a backbone for long-term growth.

Politically, 2025 marked significant efforts in governance reform and institutional strengthening under the administration of Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.. The budget law passed for 2025 allocated major resources to infrastructure, education and public works - signalling a continued commitment to development-oriented spending. In addition, authorities took steps to tighten oversight and boost transparency, especially in light of controversies in certain infrastructure programmes, in the process underscoring a political resolve to improve institutional accountability.

From a geopolitical and trade-policy perspective, 2025 saw the Philippines deepen efforts to position itself as a more attractive node in global value chains. By promoting investment incentives and regulatory predictability, the government signalled its ambition to draw in foreign capital and integrate more broadly in regional supply networks.

Looking ahead, if the Philippines maintains macro-economic discipline, completes pending reforms, and sustains investment momentum - particularly in infrastructure, human capital and export-oriented sectors - it stands poised to achieve steady, inclusive growth over the medium term. The challenge will lie in balancing growth ambitions with effective governance, controlling vulnerabilities (such as external shocks or institutional risks) and ensuring the benefits of growth reach broad segments of society.

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