An escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran could trigger a sharp divergence across African currencies, with oil exporters benefiting from higher crude prices while energy-importing economies face mounting pressure on their exchange rates, according a report from Fitch Solutions.

The ratings agency said a wider regional conflict would likely push global energy prices sharply higher and disrupt shipping routes, worsening the terms of trade for many economies in sub-Saharan Africa.

“A significant escalation in conflict in the Middle East would push global energy prices sharply higher and disrupt key shipping routes, driving a notable deterioration in terms of trade for fuel-importing and trade-exposed markets,” Fitch said.

Fitch currently assesses the conflict as a short-lived campaign with regional spillovers but warns that the risk of a longer war is rising the longer fighting continues. In a prolonged escalation scenario, Brent crude prices could trade in a range of $110–130 a barrel, it said.

The effects across African currencies would be uneven. Oil exporters such as Nigeria — and to a lesser extent Angola — would likely benefit from higher crude prices, while energy importers including Kenya and South Africa would face depreciation pressures.

“We believe that the impact of escalation on SSA’s major currencies would be uneven,” Fitch said, adding that oil exporters could see currency support while “net importers such as Kenya and South Africa would face depreciatory pressures driven by weaker terms of trade and risk-off sentiment.”

Nigeria’s naira could strengthen if oil prices remain elevated, although Fitch cautioned that a flight to safe-haven assets could offset some of the gains by reducing capital inflows.

Elsewhere the risks are more acute. Kenya’s shilling is “sharply exposed” to higher oil prices and global risk aversion, Fitch said, warning that depreciation could threaten macroeconomic stability given the country’s large stock of foreign-currency debt.

Smaller economies could face even greater strain. Countries with weak external buffers and heavy reliance on imported fuel would be particularly vulnerable to a prolonged oil shock.

The Burundian franc is among the most exposed currencies because of the country’s dependence on imported energy and thin foreign-exchange reserves. Fitch estimates Burundi’s reserves cover just 1.2 months of imports — well below the IMF’s recommended minimum of three months.

Malawi faces similar pressures, with fuel accounting for 16.5% of its import bill and foreign-exchange reserves covering only around half a month of imports.

Fitch said the duration of the conflict would ultimately determine the scale of currency adjustments across the region. “A sustained increase in global oil prices could force a much sharper adjustment,” the agency warned, particularly in countries already facing fragile external balances.