Ukrainians are getting tired of the war. In a change of heart, a majority would now support a peace agreement involving territorial concessions if presented alongside clear incentives such as European Union membership and security guarantees, according to new Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) polling data.

Previously, polls found that while support for a ceasefire deal was growing, the majority of Ukrainians would not accept that if it included ceding land not currently occupied by Russia as part of any agreement.

KIIS found that 61% of Ukrainians would vote in favour of a deal that gives up all of the Donbas – the central Kremlin demand – in a referendum if the question were framed positively. Among those who said they were likely to participate in a vote, support rose significantly to 86%, with only 10% opposed.

The public backing for a negotiated settlement with Russia now hinges less on the substance of the agreement itself and more on the political and strategic framing of a potential agreement.

While public support for a compromise deal is rising, the talks themselves are now on hold again, as the US, the central mediator, has become distracted with the conflict in Iran. As bne IntelliNews reported, US President Donald Trump is losing his patience with Ukraine after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the US to tighten sanctions on Russia again, just as the White House eased them to supply India with oil, and criticised Operation Epic Fury. Trump is frustrated with Zelenskiy intransigence on the issue of conceding the Donbas to Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has left the talks in deadlock.

The KIIS poll increases the pressure on Zelenskiy to make a deal and give more away to Russia. The respondents were more inclined to support territorial compromises when these were explicitly linked to tangible outcomes, including prospective European Union membership by 2027, firm security guarantees, and a defined reconstruction programme.

“Depending on wording, Ukrainians planning to vote in a potential referendum would support a peace deal with ‘territorial compromises’,” the polling organisation said, pointing to the sensitivity of public opinion to how proposals are communicated.

Zelenskiy is increasingly finding himself boxed into an impossible position. He welcomed Trump’s suggestion to accelerate Ukraine’s EU accession bid and join in 2027, part of the 27-point peace plan (27PPP) thrashed out in Moscow in December. However, the EU itself has rejected that plan and is insisting on its decade-long vetting process. At the same time, the White House has yet to sign off on the US security deal that was also included in the 27PPP, a key element of Bankova’s prerequisites for conceding land.

Zelenskiy is now facing a growing domestic political crisis as he starts to lose authority with his own Servant of the People (SOTP) party at home, and a funding crisis after the fiasco surrounding the EU’s failure to release the €90bn EU loan agreed in December. If the funding issue is not resolved then Ukraine faces a macroeconomic collapse sometime in the spring. Zelenskiy's personal popularity has also been falling steadily, albeit slowly.

The poll underscores the challenge facing Ukrainian policymakers as they cope with the growing war fatigue. KIIS stressed that both legitimacy and question design would be decisive in any referendum process, necessary before Ukraine can cede land to Russia. “Legitimacy & question wording matter hugely,” the organisation said.