The trump administration and Donald Trump personally have completely lost the ability to mediate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, says The Bell in a commentary.

The escalation of conflict with Iran has distracted the White House and sucked up what remaining resources the Pentagon has to leave Ukraine out in the cold. The situation has been exacerbated by a new dip in the personal relations between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the most recent flare up between the two presidents. Needing a quick win in Iran and unable to achieve it, Trump is losing his patience as he also needs a quick win in Ukraine ahead of the looming midterm elections in November and is unable to achieve that either.

US has deprioritised its role as a mediator in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia that were making progress after the Moscow meeting on December 3 between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the US envoys. The peace process has now been effectively put on hold and Zelenskiy is preparing for another two years of war, according to analysis by The Bell.

“The US administration and Donald Trump personally have no time for mediation between Ukraine and Russia — one could say the Donbas peace process has been paused because of the war with Iran,” The Bell wrote, citing multiple sources. A European diplomat told the Financial Times: “The Middle East has diverted political focus to itself. This is a catastrophe for us and for Ukraine.”

Washington has already warned European allies that weapons deliveries — particularly air defence systems and Patriot interceptor missiles — will be delayed and reprioritised towards partners in the Middle East. Ukraine is already desperately short of the PAC-3 Patriot interceptors, but now so is Israel, according to reports, after fending off a massive Iranian barrage in the first days of Operation Epic Fury.

“This is a big problem, because the Middle East and Ukraine are competing for the same resources,” EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas said, according to the Financial Times. “Naturally, America is now looking at the Middle East.”

Oil markets reflect expectations of a prolonged disruption. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel over the weekend and hovered near $105 on March 17, as traders do not expect a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz any time soon. Omani crude, which is on the right side of the Straits, has doubled in price to over $120 per barrel and the Russian Urals blend, which is unaffected by the crisis, is also trading over $100 as the White House temporarily eased Russian oil sanctions with a 30-day waiver for India to buy more.

“The market does not believe in a quick deblockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with convoys or without,” The Bell wrote. While the White House is reportedly preparing to announce coalition convoy operations in the strait, participation remains uncertain. “It is unclear who, apart from the US, would join — the UK, France, Germany, South Korea, Japan and Australia have all refused to risk ships under Iranian missile and drone strikes.”

The risks of escalation remain high. “Even a single speedboat with a missile or magnetic mine can disable a supertanker in such a narrow and complex waterway,” US military assessments told the New York Times. According to the most recent reports, Iran has mined the centre of the channel, forcing ships to sail close to the Iranian shore putting them in short range to its drones and missiles.

Trump has called on China to join in his attempts to open the Straits to international tanker traffic or the US will “bomb the entire Iranian coastline.” He also warned that allied reluctance could threaten Nato cohesion.

For Russia, the conflict is generating short-term gains. “Russia is collecting windfall dividends from rising oil prices, estimated by the Financial Times at $150mn per day, and is hoping for a weakening of Ukrainian air defences due to shortages of Western supplies,” The Bell wrote. The Kremlin has calibrated its criticism of Washington accordingly. “Putin has criticised Trump very cautiously so as not to provoke increased US support for Ukraine,” the publication said, citing sources familiar with back-channel contacts.

Ukraine, however, may also derive advantages from the pause. “The suspension of negotiations could work in Ukraine’s favour, as they may resume under more favourable conditions,” The Bell wrote. The country has strengthened its energy resilience and regained momentum in drone warfare. “Ukraine has expanded the depth of its kill zone to 150km in key areas, while Russia’s has shrunk to 20km,” The Telegraph reports.