Latvia’s Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) warned that Russia is likely to maintain long-term pressure on the country, combining military intimidation, legal action and information warfare, according to the unclassified section of the security service's 2025 annual report published on January 26. 

Alongside a review of last year’s operations, the report sets out an assessment of how existing security challenges could evolve, pointing to Moscows increasingly confrontational stance towards Western states and Nato.

According to SAB, the Kremlin now views the West as an existential threat to its ruling system and considers itself already locked in a direct confrontation.

 “Over the past few years, Moscow’s perception of the West as an existential threat to the ruling regime has intensified. Russia believes it has already entered a direct confrontation with the West: the struggle takes place not only in Ukraine, but also globally and ideologically. Russia’s aggravated threat perception means a significant increase of security threats for Europe,” an SAB press release said.

The bureau said Russia is increasingly turning to international legal mechanisms as part of its pressure campaign, aiming to damage Latvia’s reputation abroad and force policy changes related to Moscow and the Russian-speaking population. SAB predicts that this approach could extend to attempts to draw Latvia and other countries into international court proceedings over alleged discrimination against Russian speakers.

The report also reiterates that Russia remains a significant military threat to Europe and Nato, warning that while Latvia is not facing an immediate attack, longer-term risks are mounting. “

"SAB’s information shows that Russia’s perception of Latvia is becoming increasingly similar to the one Russia had of Ukraine before the war. While Russia does not pose a direct military threat to Latvia at the moment, a number of signs indicate potential long-term plans,” the service said.

SAB noted that hostile narratives promoted by Russian officials and state media "increasingly depict Latvia as a russophobic and oppressive state", the report reads.

Although not a priority for Russia, the increasingly negative view of Latvia may result in more aggressive Russian decisions in the long term. Most Russian narratives portray Latvia as a russophobic country that oppresses the Russian-speaking part of the population. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs periodically publishes voluminous reports on human rights violations and the situation in Western countries, quite often dedicating one of the biggest parts of the report to Latvia. Russian narratives also depict Latvia as a Nazi state, a puppet of the UK and the US, and a failed state. Before the war, Moscow was spreading similar narratives regarding Ukraine. 

“Now, it continues to portray all three Baltic countries in a similar way,” the report says.

Commenting on the findings, SAB director Egils Zviedris said assessments of the potential timeframe for a Russian military threat to Nato had become more uncertain as conditions changed. “Last year, when analysing the state of security situation in the region, we assessed that under the right conditions Russian military threat to Nato could substantially increase over a five-year period. Recently, various experts have been predicting it over the next two to three years. The situation has changed, the threat has increased, but currently, we are not limiting it to a certain time frame as the situation is influenced by various factors and their combination. The threat level stemming from Russia will remain high, therefore, we must work purposefully to reduce it. We must also be prepared for the fact that Russia will try to exert its influence on the upcoming parliamentary elections in Latvia this fall,” he said, as quoted by SAB. 

Zviedris also urged the public to remain alert during the election year, warning that foreign influence efforts often rely on unwitting domestic participation. 

The report also highlights the growing role of artificial intelligence in Russian information operations. SAB warned that AI is being used to tailor messaging more precisely and to lower the cost of producing multilingual content aimed beyond traditional Russian-speaking audiences. 

SAB is one of Latvia’s three state security services, alongside the State Security Service and the Defence Intelligence and Security Service. Its responsibilities include intelligence gathering, counter-intelligence, the protection of official secrets and safeguarding Nato and EU classified information within public institutions, according to broadcaster LSM.lv.