Latvian PM Andris Kulbergs’ ruling party United List has secured a lead in the October 3 parliamentary election, putting Kulbergs in a strong position to retain power, while record-low turnout has exposed widespread political disengagement. Provisional results gave his party approximately 35% of the vote and 42 seats in the 100-member parliament, the Saeima, public broadcaster LSM.lv reported on October 4.

The outcome could deliver continuity in government and Latvia's support for Ukraine, while shifting influence over next year's presidential election towards United List. However, participation of just 51.6% of voters raises questions about the ability of parties and media organisations to engage almost half the electorate.

By 8.30am on October 4, 1,023 of 1,059 polling stations had submitted results. Six political groups were expected to cross the 5% threshold required to enter parliament.

Latvia First finished second with approximately 13% and a projected 17 seats. Sovereign Power/Union of New Latvians followed with 11% and 14 seats. The National Alliance was on course for 11 mandates, the Progressives nine and New Unity seven, LSM.lv said.

The Greens and Farmers Union appeared set to lose its parliamentary representation after attracting approximately 4.5%.

Coalition negotiations had yet to begin formally, but Kulbergs had clear options. United List and the National Alliance could command a narrow majority of 53 seats. Including New Unity would increase that total to 60, giving the government greater room to manage disagreements, LSM.lv said.

Kulbergs became prime minister after Evika Silina's administration collapsed in the spring.

In early May, Silina resigned following incursions of several foreign drones. She was criticised for poor management of the contingencies. Previously, defence minister Andris Spruds resigned, facing mounting political pressure after the drone incidents exposed weaknesses in the country’s air defence and public warning systems.

Reportedly, several drones entered Latvian airspace from Russia overnight in the early hours of May 7, with two of them crashing and one causing a fire at an oil depot in Rezekne. 

The Saeima result could also reshape the presidential contest due in June 2027. President Edgars Rinkevics defeated United List founder Uldis Pilens in 2023. With the president chosen by parliament, United List's expanded representation could strengthen Pilens' prospects should he stand again.

Yet the election's clearest setback was participation. Approximately 804,180 of 1,557,615 registered voters cast ballots, bringing turnout below the previous record low of 54.6% in 2018 and approximately 59% in 2022, LSM.lv reported.