The Kazakhstan service sector showed signs of recovery in March, according to the latest Freedom Holding Corp Purchasing Managers’ Index on the industry, published on April 3.

A softer decline in service industry output was assisted by a marginal, but renewed rise in new business received, according to the statement issued with the PMI.

The Business Activity Index, reflecting changes in the volume of business activity compared with the previous month, ticked up from 48.0 in February to 49.2 in March, indicating a moderated and only slight drop in output across Kazakhstan's service sector (only readings above 50.0 indicate growth).

Saltanat Mukhambetaliyeva, economics research and analytics head at Freedom Holding Operations, said: "The sector is adapting to the dual impact of input cost pressures and subdued demand.

“A positive signal was the slowing growth rate of input prices, which returned to levels seen in late 2025, alongside a recovery in new orders.

“This subdued demand aligns with official statistics showing a slowdown in consumer lending growth in recent months. Nevertheless, amid a downturn in manufacturing, services remained a stabilising factor for the economy in the first quarter. Business expectations for the year ahead continue to improve on a wave of cautious optimism, though they remain below the long-term average."

The commentary with the PMI said that in terms of prices, as the initial impacts of the VAT rise at the start of the year dissipated, the two PMI price gauges also retreated further at the end of the first quarter, signalling weaker inflationary pressures.

Those service providers that signalled a decrease in activity during March mentioned funding constraints, the impacts of January’s changes in VAT and political uncertainty.

However, reports of incoming new work and customer wins helped soften the downturn. 
Freedom Holding Corp, S&P GlobalCredit.