Hezbollah published footage of striking an Israeli Merkava tank in the town square of Taybeh, southern Lebanon on March 26.

The Israeli Army took its heaviest tank losses in over 40 years after Hezbollah ambushes destroyed 21 Merkavas main battle tanks in a single day on March 26.

Multiple ambushes launched against Israeli forces in southern Lebanon caught them off guard and destroyed the tanks using a mixture of drone and infantry attacks. Independent verification of the scale of damage and weapons used remains limited.

According to local reports, cheap anti-tank guided missiles and drones were effectively used to destroy the large main battle tanks valued at several million dollars each.

It was an engagement strongly reminiscent of the opening stages of the war in Ukraine, Russian forces were also wrong-footed by lightly-armed Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) using US-supplied Javelin missiles that “popped the tops” or Russia’s heavy tanks in fast moving but devastating attacks.

Hezbollah’s weapons have been upgraded, and in addition to shoulder-fired missiles it has gone straight to the drone phase of the war using its advanced drone technology and that supplied by Russia.

Other footage released on social media has shown Iranian forces flying First Person View (FPV) drones, guided by an unjammable fibre optic wire controls system that have stuck and destroyed US Black Hawk helicopters inside a US Gulf base.

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The fibre optic guidance system was a Russian innovation that was initially scorned by the AFU, then adopted wholesale by the Ukrainian forces. Since these technological advances both Russia and Ukraine have developed myriad new systems and countermeasures, but it appears that both the US and Israel are still relying on old school thinking and armed themselves with heavy mechanised armour that is increasingly helpless in the rapidly evolving modern warfare techniques developed in the wheatfields of Ukraine.

As bne IntelliNews reported, in a modern asymmetrical war it is not about having the best and most powerful weapons, but having cheap, but “good enough” weapons in massive numbers. The old school “Command of the Commons” military doctrine that emphases military “primacy” that has been standard for decades, has given way to the “Command of the Reload” since the short war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 2020 pioneered drone-use, where the emphasis is on overwhelming your opponent with an almost limitless supply of cheap but deadly drones.

Iran and its proxies like Hezbollah have adopted these tactics and have largely been able to negate the US and Israeli advantages in the sophistication of their weapons.

As Ukraine’s former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi wrote in an editorial recently: “The large-scale changes that have occurred on the battlefields of the Russian-Ukrainian war have changed the paradigm of how warfare is waged… Today, in a relatively cheap way, any country can have combat capabilities that completely outstrip its economic or demographic situation if there is a desire and political will for it.”

Israel found this out to its cost after Hezbollah destroyed 21 Merkava main battle tanks in less than a day between the towns of Taybeh and Qantara on March 26. Other reports claim Hezbollah destroyed more than 100 tanks in total in 48-hours, according to Iran’s state-run Press TV.

Hezbollah artillery units also targeted Israeli command positions in the Taybeh region, Rab Thalathin and Oudaiseh, while also firing on Israeli reinforcements that were dispatched to evacuate casualties, Military Watch reports. Hezbollah attacks were supported by longer-range missile strikes against Israeli positions by Iran.

As bne IntelliNews reported, Israel launched a large scale invasion of southern Lebanon after Hezbollah fired rockets in retribution for the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IDF has been targeting civilians as part of a drive to depopulate the region and take complete control up to the Litani river. More than one million people have already been displaced as Israel adopts tactics similar to those used in Gaza by flattening residential buildings and destroying local infrastructure.

The success of the Hezbollah counterblow represents the most extreme losses Israeli armour has suffered in over 40 years since the early stages of the Lebanon War when Merkavas and older US-supplied tanks engaged newly supplied Syrian Army Russian-made T-72 tanks and anti-tank guided weapons.

Ammo running low

To compound the attacking coalitions problems, they are already running low onf the very powerful ammunition they put such store in. A new report from the Royal United Services Institute for Defense and Security warns that Israel has used most of its Arrow 2 and 3 interceptors, while U.S. THAAD missiles protecting Gulf allies are heavily depleted.

A previous report from The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and the Payne Institute also identified critical shortages in 14 of the 35 munitions used in Iran after just the first 96 hours of fighting.

The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security estimates that Israel has already fired 80% of its Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 interceptors, 54% of its David’s Sling missiles, and 45% of the American-made THAAD interceptors it operates. By contrast, only 20% of Iron Dome interceptors have been used. The institute estimates that 60% of the THAAD missiles deployed to protect Gulf states from Iranian attacks have already been expended.

Israel’s stockpiles of offensive weapons remain in better shape; for instance, only half of its Rampage missiles have been launched, Haaretz reports.

Israel’s interception capabilities are finite and cannot match the rate at which Iran is launching missiles at Israel and the Gulf states. Each Arrow interceptor costs between $2mn and $3mn, limiting how many Israel can afford. The cost of the missiles and the size of the stockpile — which cannot be expanded quickly — put a mathematical limit on how long the war can run using the current mix of weapons and methods.

The institute estimates that it could take the United States up to five years to restore its Tomahawk missile reserves.

IDF sources responded last week to reports suggesting Israel’s interceptor stockpiles are running low, but did not give any details.

In addition to running short of interceptors, Iran’s latest missiles have received a technological upgrade and have proven able to evade interceptors and hit their targets. All 13 of the US Gulf bases have been badly damaged by Iranian strikes, and most are now largely without staff.

IDF under pressure