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bna Cairo bureau

Iraq fifth most climate-affected country globally as temperatures outpace world average

Iraq ranks fifth globally for climate vulnerability as temperatures rise faster than world average, rainfall drops 35% over 30 years, and reduced Turkish dam releases worsen historic water crisis.
Iraq fifth most climate-affected country globally as temperatures outpace world average
Iraq is one of the worst affected countries for drought in the world.
January 29, 2026

Iraq ranks as the fifth most affected country globally by climate change, with rising temperatures, falling rainfall and water shortages compounding economic, social and security risks, a senior environment official said.

Deputy Environment Minister Jassim Al-Falahi said at an energy conference in Baghdad that Iraq has recorded unprecedented temperature increases over the past two decades, outpacing global climate scenarios that assume a one-degree rise every 100 years.

"Iraq has effectively outpaced the world in the rate of temperature increase," Al-Falahi said, adding that even a single degree rise sharply increases demand for energy and water, with far-reaching health, social, economic and environmental consequences.

Al-Falahi said climate change has been directly linked to worsening drought, noting that rainfall has fallen by 35% over the past 30 years, based on data from international research centres. Iraq is now experiencing its fourth consecutive year of drought.

Water stress has been worsened by reduced inflows from upstream countries. Iraq relies on cross-border water sources for about 90% of its supply, making it highly vulnerable to regional water policies.

Rising temperatures have increased evaporation, resulting in annual water losses of two to three billion cubic metres, whilst desertification continues to spread. Dust storms have intensified, with the number of dusty days rising from around 160 days a year to nearly 250, posing serious health risks.

Al-Falahi noted that 60% to 80% of water resources are used in agriculture, much of it through traditional irrigation methods, whilst about 40% of water supplied to cities is lost due to ageing networks.

Turkey's ambassador to Baghdad, Anil Bora, said transboundary water resources are "scarce and extremely valuable" and should be managed sustainably for the benefit of all downstream countries. He confirmed that Turkey is both an upstream and downstream riparian state, not solely a source country.

Bora said priority should be given to swiftly implementing water projects discussed with Iraq for more than 18 months, including infrastructure upgrades, once financing mechanisms are approved. He described progress on ratifying the financing framework as "slow" but said Ankara was keen to move ahead.

Water Resources Minister Aoun Dhiab said the strategic water understanding with Turkey is a framework cooperation project rather than a binding agreement, stressing that it does not establish fixed water quotas. "The region as a whole is suffering from water scarcity, not Iraq alone," he said.

Water stress along the Euphrates River, a key lifeline for Iraq, has become a major point of tension with Turkey, which controls upstream flows. Iraqi officials say reduced releases from Turkish dams have sharply curtailed water reaching the country, worsening drought conditions and driving river levels to historic lows.

Environmental observers note that Iraq is now receiving only a fraction of its traditional share from the Tigris-Euphrates system, heightening pressure on shared water resources and prolonging negotiations over water management and cooperation.

Outgoing Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani oversaw the signing of the executive mechanism for the framework water cooperation with Turkey in November, but officials say the country faces its worst water crisis this year amid climate change and upstream water use.

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