Ukraine’s access to tens of billions of euros in European Union support may remain uncertain regardless of the outcome of Hungary’s closely contested election this month, as the anti-Ukrainian ruling Fidesz’ main challenger has also indicated reservations over key elements of assistance to Kyiv.

EU officials have increasingly tied hopes of unlocking a €90bn financial package for Ukraine to the possibility of a political shift in Budapest. The vote, scheduled for April 11-12, is seen in Brussels as a potential turning point after months of obstruction by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has delayed both new sanctions on Russia and financial aid for Kyiv.

But diplomats and analysts caution that even a change in leadership may not resolve the impasse, raising the prospect of prolonged delays at a critical moment in Ukraine’s war effort and economic stability.

The €90bn package, approved in principle by EU leaders in December, is designed to cover Ukraine’s financing needs through 2027. Structured as an interest-free loan backed by the EU budget, it is intended to stabilise public finances as the war with Russia drags on.

However, Hungary has blocked final approval, linking its support to the restoration of oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline, which was damaged earlier this year. Orban has framed the issue as a matter of national interest, insisting that energy security concerns must be addressed before Budapest agrees to release funds. The standoff has already delayed disbursements. Ukrainian officials have said the first tranche is unlikely to arrive before the summer, leaving Kyiv scrambling to cover budgetary gaps.

Without the EU package, Ukraine faces mounting fiscal pressure. The country could face severe liquidity constraints within months, even as international institutions provide short-term relief. An $8.1bn programme from the International Monetary Fund has bought time, it is only a temporary solution.

Turning point 

There is speculation that the EU is pinning its hopes in a victory for opposition leader Peter Magyar and his Tisza party, which has mounted the strongest challenge in years to Orban’s rule. 

Reportedly, some EU officials have privately expressed hope that a new government would take a more cooperative approach to EU decision-making, easing tensions that have repeatedly stalled collective action on Ukraine.

Magyar has positioned himself as a critic of Orban’s ties with Moscow, accusing the government of compromising Hungary’s interests in its dealings with Russia. However, on Ukraine, his rhetoric has been cautious and often aligns with prevailing public sentiment, as reported by Politico.

He has opposed fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU membership, rejected the idea of sending weapons, and indicated that any accession bid should be put to a referendum. His party also voted against the EU loan package in the European Parliament, despite Hungary not being required to contribute financially.

This suggests that a Magyar-led government may not fundamentally alter Hungary’s approach, particularly if domestic opinion remains sceptical of deeper engagement with Ukraine.

Public opinion in Hungary presents a significant constraint for any government. Surveys indicate widespread scepticism towards Ukraine, with many voters opposing financial aid and EU membership for Kyiv.

The war has been a central theme of the election campaign, often framed through a nationalist lens that emphasises Hungary’s security and economic interests. Government messaging has portrayed Ukraine as a potential threat, while also criticising EU policies seen as exacerbating the conflict. Meanwhile, Magyar has sought to navigate this environment carefully, avoiding overtly pro-Ukraine positions that could alienate voters.

Broader implications

The uncertainty surrounding Hungary’s position has broader implications for EU cohesion. The bloc’s efforts to support Ukraine have increasingly relied on consensus, giving individual member states significant leverage. Hungary’s resistance, at times supported by Slovakia, has exposed divisions within the EU and forced policymakers to consider alternative mechanisms.

European governments are now exploring contingency plans, including bilateral loans that could bypass the need for unanimous approval. Such arrangements would allow willing countries to provide funding directly to Ukraine, though they would mark a shift away from collective EU action.

Discussions are reportedly underway on a potential €30bn stopgap package, which could sustain Ukraine’s finances in the short term. Some countries have already signalled willingness to contribute independently. However, these measures are seen as less efficient and politically more complex than a unified EU approach.

The stakes are high for Ukraine, which relies heavily on external support to fund its budget and maintain essential services. The €90bn package represents a significant commitment, comparable in scale to previous collective borrowing initiatives such as the bloc’s pandemic recovery fund. Delays in financing could have ripple effects across the economy, undermining stability at a time when military and reconstruction needs remain substantial.