Germany’s gas grid operators have warned that current market conditions and storage rules may be insufficient to secure supplies through the coming winter, as geopolitical tensions disrupt the economics that traditionally underpinned Europe’s gas storage system.

In their first joint gas security report, Germany’s transmission system operators said the longstanding model of buying gas cheaply during summer months and storing it for winter consumption had “completely broken down” amid reduced liquidity and uncertainty over global liquefied natural gas supplies.

As IntelliNews reported, Europe has been slipping into a gas crisis as the combination of last winter's big freeze and disruptions to the energy market caused by the Iran war have compiled and led to Europe going into the restocking season with unusually low amounts of gas left in its tanks. In addition, the European Commission (EC) has rolled out the first restrictions on importing Russian gas as part of the plan to ban imports of Russian gas completely by January 1 next year.

The new warning comes as tensions in the Middle East continue to raise concerns over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. European gas markets have remained volatile since Russia sharply reduced pipeline exports to the continent following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, forcing Germany and other EU member states to rely more heavily on LNG imports. In the first quarter of this year, European companies purchased every single Russian LNG shipment as they scramble to fill tanks ahead of the start of the heating season.

According to the operators, German gas storage sites are currently around 30% full, well below the pace required to meet mandated 90% full winter targets by November 1. The report said LNG import terminals could cover only 8.5% of peak winter demand, leaving more than 50% of peak consumption dependent on withdrawals from underground storage facilities.

“If storage doesn’t fill, Germany runs out of gas mid-winter,” commodities analyst Jack Prandelli said in a comment, adding that delays in restoring normal LNG trade flows could deepen supply risks as colder months approach.

Germany expanded its LNG import infrastructure rapidly after losing access to most Russian pipeline gas. Since 2022, Berlin has commissioned several floating LNG terminals and signed long-term supply agreements with producers including QatarEnergy and US exporters. The country also introduced mandatory storage-filling targets intended to avoid the shortages that threatened Europe during the 2022 energy crisis. However, after its main facility was hit by missiles, QatarEnergy has declared a force majeure and suspended its gas supply contract commitments.

The German operators said the commercial incentives that historically encouraged traders to inject gas into storage during summer months had largely disappeared because seasonal price spreads no longer covered storage costs.

“The market signal that built German storage for decades is gone,” Prandelli said.

The operators added that the challenge extended beyond Germany, noting that “every EU member state with storage-dependent winter supply is watching the same clock”.