Georgia's corporate bond market has hit $3bn, its latest government Eurobond was 5.5 times oversubscribed, and JP Morgan is forecasting 4.7% GDP growth in 2026 even after downgrading for the Middle East oil shock. By almost every measure, Georgia is the standout economic story in the South Caucasus. But senior international investors gathering in Tbilisi on March 24 said the country's remarkable fundamentals are increasingly being assessed alongside questions about governance, political continuity and the direction of its democracy.

JP Morgan's Nicolaie Alexandru, global head of EM edge and head of EMEA EM economics, confirmed the bank's 2026 growth forecast to bne IntelliNews at TBC Capital's conference that brought together some of the world's leading emerging market investors.

"We expect economic growth to slow down towards potential," he said. "On the fiscal side, the situation will remain under control. It has been quite well managed until now, so we do not see any significant risk from that direction." The current account deficit was expected to widen modestly to around 3.8% of GDP from 3.6% last year. "Things should be under control from a macro point of view."

That macro story has been building for years. TBC Capital managing director Otar Sharikadze told the conference that 2025 was a record year for corporate bond issuance, with GEL1.5bn placed across 14 issuers, four of them new entrants. Around 60% of corporate bonds are held by retail investors, an unusual feature that sets Georgia apart from regional peers. Lari-denominated issuance is growing fast, with 54% of the outstanding public corporate bond market now GEL-denominated. The government's own January 2026 Eurobond was 5.5 times oversubscribed despite what Finance Minister Lasha Khutsishvili described as a far more difficult global environment than the previous issuance in 2021.

GDP per capita has exceeded $10,000 for the first time. Within five to seven years, Georgia may graduate from concessional financing, making regular access to open capital markets a necessity rather than a choice. "We will be more active on the markets," Khutsishvili said. "The market should not wait for us after five years."

Silk Road Group founder and chairman Giorgi Ramishvili, whose company completed Georgia's largest ever private sector Eurobond at $400mn, described the journey through domestic bond markets as essential preparation for international issuance. "The vision, dedication and trust with financial institutions, and direct relationships with investors during roadshows, all of this over a long time makes a good result."

The Asian Development Bank's David Urbaneja, who has participated in Georgian transactions totalling over $1.5bn, described Georgia's capital market development as "very remarkable, especially within the region," noting that other Caucasus countries were actively looking to Georgia as a model to replicate.

Against this backdrop, the observations from the investor community were pointed. Svetla Atanasova, director of EM sovereign strategy at MetLife Investment Management, placed Georgia among the regional standouts on fiscal discipline, growth quality and balance of payments strength. She praised the country for using the windfall from Russian inflows after 2022 to reduce its deficit, cut public debt and diversify its economy into ICT, tourism and education. But on policy continuity and governance, she offered a notable qualification. Investors wanted governments that communicated openly and followed consistent policies, she said. "Ideally, you will have a government which has been given a big mandate by society to establish reforms. And I think this is where Georgia has a bit more work to do."

The comments come following disputed 2024 elections that much of the opposition and many international observers have refused to recognise.

Aberdeen's Lochlann Kerr said he consistently found opportunities in Georgia that he described as "hidden gems" in emerging markets, companies that often exhibited investment-grade characteristics despite their sovereign rating. Speaking more broadly about what Aberdeen looks for in EM corporate credits, he said governance was among the most important criteria. "As a potential credit investor, I am going to be thinking about whether you are using excess cash to invest in core areas or non-core areas, whether you are focused on shareholder returns or deleveraging. At least if I have the goalposts that the company will operate within, that gives me a lot of confidence."

The broader picture that emerged was of a capital market story with genuine substance and genuine momentum, but one that the international investment community is watching with growing attention to whether Georgia's political direction aligns with the economic trajectory it is trying to sustain.