Polish retail sales grew 4.4% year-on-year (y/y) in constant prices in January, easing somewhat from a 5.3% y/y rise in December, the statistics office GUS said on February 23.

The January reading beat market consensus, which expected a 3.3% y/y gain. Analysts say harsh January weather drove the headline result, as sales of clothing and shoes picked up sharply while other segments performed more or less in line with expectations.

“This suggests that after several mild winters in recent years, some Poles were not adequately equipped with appropriate clothing to cope with frost and snowfall,” ING said in a note.

Despite a freakish sales structure in January that likely is a one-off, retail sales are expected to grow solidly in 2026, propping up the overall economic growth - but not quite to the same extent as as in 2025.

“[Last year’s] positive surprise in real income growth will not be repeated this year, while inflation will be lower. In effect, nominal income growth will remain on a downward trend,” Bank Pekao said.

“We expect private consumption to increase by 3.4% this year, below last year’s figure of 3.7%,” it also said.

Seven out of eight main retail segments posted annual increases in January, compared to growth across the board in December, GUS data showed.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear gained 17,6% y/y in January, the expansion rate nearly tripling, compared to December’s 6% y/y growth. 

The odd one out was - surprisingly - sales of cars and car parts, which declined 4.5% y/y in January after jumping 13.1% y/y the preceding month. It was the first fall in that category since mid-2023

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco added 4.2% y/y in the first month after adding 1.9% y/y in December. Meanwhile, fuel sales rose 4.6% y/y in January, after an 8.3% y/y increase the preceding month.

Sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose 9.6% y/y in January, a slight pick-up from an expansion of 8.4% y/y the preceding month.

Furniture, audio and video equipment and household appliances sales rose 10.5% y/y in January versus December’s 19.8% y/y gain.

In the press and books category, sales added 8.1% y/y in January, after a 1.4% y/y gain the preceding month. The broad “other” segment gained just 0.9% y/y in January after growing 8.6% y/y in December.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices declined 17.8% m/m in January, an expected result after December’s 6.7% m/m increase for Christmas.

In current prices, retail turnover rose 3.9% y/y in January, compared with a 12.5% y/y increase in 
December. Turnover fell 17.9% m/m in current prices in January, compared with a 5% m/m increase in the twelfth month.

Seasonally adjusted data showed a 5.1% y/y increase in retail turnover in January, compared with a gain of 4.7% y/y in December, while in m/m terms adjusted turnover added 0.5% after growing 0.2% m/m the preceding month, GUS said.

Retail sales  and other January data do not alter the outlook for monetary policy much, as the National Bank of Poland (NBP) is awaiting new projections of inflation and GDP growth due in March. 

The NBP administered six interest rate reductions last year, bringing the reference interest rate down to 4%. Subdued data from the real economy (except for retail sales) in January and falling inflation appear likely to prompt a new 25bp interest rate reduction in March to 3.5%.