Fitch Ratings, in an ad-hoc note on May 18, said it expects the near-term impact of Romania’s political crisis on public finances to remain limited, despite growing uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government and the continuation of fiscal consolidation efforts.

The rating agency acknowledged that political uncertainty could remain elevated in the coming months but said it does not expect the current crisis to trigger early elections. This assumption, however, increasingly appears fragile as consultations on forming a parliamentary majority continue without a clear outcome.

Fitch pointed to Romania’s relatively strong fiscal performance so far this year as a stabilising factor. The budget deficit stood at RON22bn (€4.4bn), or 1.0% of GDP, in the first quarter of 2026, roughly half the level recorded in the same periods of 2024 and 2025.

The agency also argued that even without a fully empowered government, a caretaker administration could continue implementing the 2026 budget, which targets a fiscal deficit of 6.2% of GDP, down from 7.7% in 2025. 

At the same time, Fitch warned that the political deadlock has significantly reduced visibility regarding Romania’s fiscal strategy beyond 2026, particularly for 2027 and 2028. A Social Democrat-led transition had previously been expected after Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, but the current political fragmentation has complicated that scenario.

The rating agency also highlighted risks linked to Romania’s absorption of EU funds under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Delays in implementing reforms and reaching milestones could jeopardise further disbursements.

Fitch estimates that Romania still has access this year to funds amounting to about 1.8% of GDP under the RRF, including €4.6bn in grants and €2.7bn in loans. The figures apparently do not include the fourth payment request worth €2.62bn that recently received a positive preliminary assessment from the European Commission (without being technically disbursed).

According to Fitch, these funds represent “a crucial source of financing and stimulus through public investment this year, given domestic economic weakness.”

Romania’s GDP contracted by 1.7% y/y in the first quarter of 2026, while weak private consumption, elevated energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict and slower eurozone growth are likely to keep economic growth well below Fitch’s previous 1.1% forecast issued in February.