World food commodity prices rose in September as transport disruptions and adverse weather tightened supply prospects, with the United Nations food agency warning that sustained pressure on energy and freight markets could eventually push up consumer prices.

The Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks internationally traded food commodities, averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier.

FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero said disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea, combined with climate shocks, were putting pressure on energy, transport and food commodities.

“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad based build up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” Torero said.

“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food and energy import dependent countries.”

Cereal prices were the main driver of the monthly increase, with FAO's cereal price index rising 5.1% in September and standing 17.2% above its level a year earlier.

Wheat prices rose 6.3%, reflecting logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry conditions in parts of North America ahead of sowing. Maize prices increased 5.6% as concerns over U.S. yields, reduced Brazilian export availability and disruptions to Black Sea trade added to supply concerns.

Rice prices rose 1.4%, while the vegetable oil index gained 0.9%, supported by stronger palm oil demand and concerns about dry weather in Southeast Asia.

Sugar prices increased 6.1% on expectations of tighter global supplies in the 2026/27 season. FAO cited lower expected production in Thailand, below-normal rainfall in India, heavy rains in Brazil's Centre-South and a smaller area planted with sugar beet in the European Union.

Meat prices fell 1.1%, mainly because of lower pork and poultry quotations amid ample export supplies. Dairy prices edged down 0.1%.

FAO also cut its forecast for global cereal production in 2026 by 2.1% from last year to 2.979 billion tonnes, although that would still be the second-largest harvest on record.

The agency raised its wheat production forecast to 813.9 million tonnes but lowered its estimate for coarse grains to 1.612 billion tonnes because of weaker yield prospects in the European Union and United States after hot and dry weather. Rice production is forecast at 552.5 million tonnes, with lower output in India outweighing improved prospects in Japan and Nepal.

Global cereal trade is expected to fall 3.5% in 2026/27 to 505.8 million tonnes, with wheat and maize exports facing greater constraints from disrupted Black Sea shipping routes and limited alternative transport capacity.

FAO said the strengthening El Niño weather pattern was adding to uncertainty, particularly for rice production in South and Southeast Asia. Rice yields globally are typically 1.0%-1.5% below trend during El Niño events, while soybean yields tend to be above trend.

FAO's Agricultural Market Information System said elevated freight rates, firmer fertiliser prices and continuing logistical disruptions were contributing to an increasingly uncertain agricultural market.