The European Union’s next wave of enlargement is entering a critical moment, with divisions emerging among major member states over how — and how fast — to expand the bloc, according to a new policy paper.

The report published by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) says recent proposals by the European Commission to fast-track Ukraine’s accession have “prompted renewed scrutiny of enlargement policy by national governments” and exposed differing national priorities.

“EU enlargement has entered a critical phase,” the paper, titled “Europe’s Next Enlargement: What Berlin, Paris, and The Hague Really Think”, states, pointing to “geopolitical urgency” driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine and broader instability near Europe’s borders.

A controversial proposal to accelerate Ukraine’s accession — described as “reverse enlargement” or “phased integration” — would have allowed Kyiv to join the EU before fully meeting all membership criteria. However, on March 4, EU ambassadors rejected the idea and asked for “a realistic way forward”. 

That pushback highlights the continuing tension between geopolitical imperatives and the EU’s traditional rules-based accession process.

Western Balkans regain focus

While Ukraine has dominated recent discussions, the paper argues that two Western Balkan candidates — Montenegro and Albania — are now closest to membership and should receive greater attention.

Having made “impressive results” in accession talks, the two countries “now stand a realistic chance of finishing them in the period from 2027 to 2028,” the report says.

Montenegro, in particular, has “already closed almost half of its negotiating chapters,” and EU member states have begun preparing for a potential accession treaty — the first since Croatia joined the bloc more than a decade ago.

However, officials face new challenges. The report notes that future treaties will likely include “stronger safeguards against new members backsliding on commitments made during negotiations,” particularly on rule of law standards.

The EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has said the Montenegro treaty could serve as “a blueprint for the next generation of EU accession treaties.”

Germany’s cautious shift

In Germany, long seen as cautious on enlargement, the debate is gaining traction. “The German debate on EU enlargement is beginning to gain some momentum,” the report says, though it adds that Berlin had previously taken a “wait and see” approach.

Behind closed doors, officials increasingly view enlargement through “geopolitical logic,” while still insisting on “the Copenhagen criteria and a merit-based approach,” particularly on rule of law.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has so far shown limited engagement. At the Munich Security Conference, however, he acknowledged discomfort with the current system, saying he felt “more and more uncomfortable” with how enlargement is handled.

He added that the EU should bring Western Balkan countries “closer and closer” before ultimately admitting them as members.

Berlin remains wary of fast-tracking Ukraine. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke of a 2027 accession target, Merz rejected the timeline. Instead, Germany favours linking Ukraine’s accession to broader progress among candidates, including Montenegro and Albania.

Netherlands supportive but hesitant

In the Netherlands, the new government supports enlargement in principle but remains cautious about accelerating the process.

The coalition agreement states that “the Netherlands must be the driving force behind a geopolitical and strong European Union that acts decisively,” while also stressing that candidates “must continue to comply with the Copenhagen criteria to become a full member.”

The report notes that political thinking on fast-track accession “is in the early stages,” with divisions among coalition partners and a minority government dependent on opposition support.

Dutch policymakers are particularly concerned about public understanding. “Dutch citizens still seem to be in the dark about the benefits of enlargement,” the paper says, warning that the issue risks becoming a political bargaining chip.

While 69% of Dutch respondents support enlargement, the topic remains low-profile domestically, meaning the government must “step up its public engagement or risk the population feeling uninformed.”

Behind the scenes, however, Dutch officials are preparing for scenarios including accelerated Ukrainian accession. If that occurs, the Netherlands is expected to push for strict conditions, including limits on membership rights — sometimes described by critics as “B-status EU membership”.

France ambivalent

In France, political sensitivities are even more pronounced ahead of presidential elections in 2027. The government of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is reluctant to open a public debate, with polls showing France to be the least supportive of enlargement among EU countries.

French officials publicly back Ukraine’s EU path, saying the country must join as soon as possible, but privately question aspects of the accession process, reflecting what the report calls a “puzzling French ambivalence”. 

French Europe Minister Benjamin Haddad recently said that “enlargement must remain demanding and merit-based to ensure its success and credibility,” while also warning against leaving candidate countries “in a grey zone, vulnerable to foreign influence and aggression”. 

Paris has also resisted some concrete steps, including initially blocking progress in Montenegro’s negotiations and opposing early work on its accession treaty. At the same time, France sees strategic value in keeping Serbia aligned with the EU and maintains close ties with President Aleksandar Vucic.

Geopolitics driving urgency

The report frames enlargement as a strategic tool in given the current global environment. “In an increasingly volatile world with transactional great-power competition… the window of opportunity for enlargement is there,” it says, urging EU leaders to treat the issue “as a matter of urgency”. 

At the same time, internal EU reforms are seen as essential. France and Germany both stress that widening the bloc must go hand in hand with changes to decision-making processes and budget policies.

Ultimately, the report concludes that the future of enlargement will depend on member states rather than EU institutions.

“Next decisions on enlargement… are now firmly in the hands of EU member states,” it states, noting that governments must balance geopolitical goals with domestic political constraints.

It calls on countries to “take the lead now – and maintain the momentum,” warning that the current window for reform may not last.

Among its recommendations, the paper urges EU governments to form “coalitions of the willing” to advance the debate, clarify the policy impact of enlargement, and provide stronger support to frontrunner countries.

It also highlights the need for better communication with voters. “Politicians in member states should drive national debates on enlargement,” the report says, stressing the need to explain both “its potential benefits, risks, and safeguards” at a time when Europe faces mounting security challenges.