Some six months after a breakthrough agreement signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in a White House ceremony, US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Armenia on February 9-10 on the first leg of a regional visit that continues in Azerbaijan on February 10-11. 

The visit by the US vice president, which stands out as the highest level US visit to Armenia, is significant in several ways. For the US, or more specifically, for the Trump Administration, the visit marks a surprisingly swift reaffirmation of the August 2025 Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) project. In fact, with the signing of TRIPP, the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been a relatively easier, “low hanging fruit” for Trump. 

Unlike other conflict areas that have attracted American engagement, there has been an impressive combination of political will, conflict fatigue and a rare display of statesmanship in the course of post-war diplomacy between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And in the wake of a year of unprecedented change, US engagement with both countries now benefits from a new opening and a fresh opportunity.

For Armenia, the dividends from partnering with the Trump Administration have been strategic, ranging from an avenue to resist the gravitational pull of the Russian orbit to the long-denied chance to overcome its landlocked geography and become a critical transit state.

Beyond Armenia, neighbouring Azerbaijan also sees benefits from American interest, in two distinct ways. First, the Trump Administration’s sidelining of human rights and democracy as prerequisites to partnership was a very welcome shift in US foreign policy, especially given the father-son dynastic rule by the Aliyev family in Azerbaijan, which has held power since 1993. But in more practical terms, Azerbaijan now seeks to garner American backing for its new-found role as the pivotal regional hub for trade and transport. 

Moreover, with aspirations to become a gateway to Central Asia, as well as the necessity to diversify its energy-dominated economy, Trump’s vision of the South Caucasus holds significant appeal for the Azerbaijan leadership.

And turning to the now neglected third country component of the region, Georgia, it seems clear that the US will only deepen its diplomatic snub of the country. As demonstrated by the vice president’s obvious decision to skip a visit to Georgia, the Georgian government has passed the limits of American indulgence, as it escalates its defiance of its own pro-European population and continues its destruction of democracy within Georgia. 

American promises to keep, and miles to go

Against that backdrop, however, not everything is easy for the United States. With dangerously high expectations and little patience, most Armenians and many Azerbaijanis are now looking to the US for perhaps more than it can deliver. And this context of heightened American engagement and pronounced involvement only increases the importance of American promises.

The geopolitical aspect of these higher expectations may also turn out to be more difficult than the economic gains and profits from the TRIPP project. As the visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan plays out, it is already sending a robust message to both Russia and Iran that the US has arrived in the South Caucasus, although the local feeling may question if it here to stay. 

What now?

From a broader view, this high-level US visit will accelerate and deepen the ongoing negotiations in the two separate bilateral tracks of negotiations between the US and Azerbaijan and the US and Armenia. It will also reinforce the importance of both Armenia and Azerbaijan to remain committed to the peace process, and as a reminder of the need to keep the Americans happy.

Yet there is another important factor which relates to Azerbaijan. Since the conclusion of the TRIPP agreement, the Trump Administration holds its own expectations for some progress over the former Armenian leaders of Nagorno Karabakh who were recently convicted and sentenced after series of show trials. Since August 2025, the Trump Administration has been quietly pressing the Azerbaijani leadership for some pardon or amnesty for the former Karabakh leaders as a magnanimous gesture of goodwill.

Five deliverables for Armenia

The Trump Administration has long been known for its embrace of the unconventional and its embodiment of disruption. Yet this time Vice President Vance arrived in Armenia with gifts, not just gestures, offering deliverables for Armenia in five core areas.

First, as negotiations over TRIPP have only advanced on two separate bilateral tracks with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, the vice president was ready to reward the Armenian side, with further detailed pledges on almost $9bn private sector support for the TRIPP “enterprise fund”.

A second notable achievement was the vice president’s announcement on the first night of his visit that negotiations between the US and Armenia over nuclear energy partnership have successfully concluded. The partnership plans for the sale of American-produced modular nuclear reactor, at a cost of $5bn for the reactors and equipment, and another $4bn for fuel and maintenance of the reactors. This one announcement alone does much to challenge Russia and its own long-standing dominance of the Armenian energy sector.

American investment and partnership with Armenia in the area of high-tech and IT comprise a third deliverable. In this sector, the US has already begun to ship NVIDIA semiconductors to Armenia for development and final production, while also extending a set of export licenses to Armenian tech firms, as well as unveiling plans for American cooperation in the establishment of new digital data centres in Armenia.

And a fourth avenue for American support for Armenia is seen in the new $11mn sale of advanced US military surveillance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These V-BAT reconnaissance drones would greatly enhance Armenian defensive capabilities and supplement Armenia’s prior procurement of defensive weapons from India.

An unlikely fifth deliverable is the unexpected American interest in Armenia’s geology, with a focus on exploring critical minerals and rare earth materials. For Armenia, regardless of the presence or absence of such assets, the American technical expertise in the exploration of such deposits will also contribute to more modern and environmentally aware projects in Armenia’s active mining sector.

What next?

The vice president’s visit to Armenia and Azerbaijan is neither a one-time, nor a one-off event. In fact, the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders not only continue to conduct their own direct bilateral negotiations but will also return to Washington for a summit of President Trump’s “Peace Council” on February 19. 

And this positive momentum in Armenian-Azerbaijani diplomacy, including new trade and economic ties, means that Turkey has much more incentive to implement “normalisation” with Armenia, with at least a partial reopening of its closed border with Armenia forthcoming.

Thus, it is safe to say and even more surprising, that the Trump Administration can be given credit for its engagement in the South Caucasus. Yet the one wild card variable will be Russia, and its response to an open challenge to its already reduced power and prestige in this region.

Richard Giragosian is the director of the Regional Studies Center (RSC), an independent think tank in Armenia.