Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has raised fears of a fresh conflict in its Tigray region that could again draw in neighbouring Eritrea, after clashes erupted in late January between Tigrayan forces and federal troops.

The recent violence marked the most serious flare-up since the two-year war that ended with a peace deal in November 2022, whose terms have yet to be fully implemented. That conflict devastated the region, displaced millions and drew in Eritrean forces alongside Ethiopian federal troops.

Now, Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of occupying its territory and supporting armed groups. Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos, in a February 7 letter addressed to his counterpart, claimed Eritrean forces had been present inside his country for a “considerable period”, and that Asmara had provided direct material support to militant groups operating within it.

"Developments over the last few days indicate that the Government of Eritrea has chosen the path of further escalation," said Gedion Timothewos, demanding Asmara "withdraw its troops from Ethiopian territory and cease all forms of collaboration with rebel groups", calling the alleged actions “not just provocations but acts of outright aggression”.

The Ethiopian foreign minister said that he believed the "cycle of violence and mistrust" could still be broken through diplomacy.

Eritrea, among the world’s most closed countries, gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993. They fought a devastating border war from 1998 to 2000 that left many tens of thousands of dead.

The two governments cooperated against rebels from Tigray during the 2020-2022 conflict, but fell out over the peace accord, the drafting of which Eritrea was excluded from.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres said last week – ahead of Ethiopia’s fresh accusations against its neighbour – that the world body is closely monitoring renewed tensions. The deteriorating security situation risks reversing hard-won progress in a region still recovering from the last conflict.

The Secretary-General’s call for parties within Ethiopia itself to exercise maximum restraint and resolve their differences through peaceful dialogue, followed open letters by several Tigray-based opposition political parties of an imminent risk of renewed conflict in the region.

Salsay Weyane Tigray (SaWeT) and the Tigray Independence Party (TIP), in letters addressed to the UN, the African Union, the United States, the European Union, and other guarantors and facilitators of the Pretoria peace agreement, both described rising political and military tensions.

In its open letter, the TIP warned of friction between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF), saying the developments pose a “serious and immediate threat” to the fragile peace.

In a comparable appeal, SaWeT warned that the region is “on the brink of an absolutely preventable disaster”. The people of Tigray, who endured years of war and humanitarian crisis, now face the daunting prospect of a renewed conflict that could be “infinitely more devastating than the last.”

The last war in Tigray, which erupted in late 2020, was among the deadliest in recent African history. As a result of fighting, resulting hunger and disruption of medical care, the death toll reached as high as 600,000, according to some academic studies.

TIP said that while the Pretoria Peace Agreement formally ended active hostilities, its implementation has been “slow, uneven, and inadequately monitored,” leading to lingering mistrust and renewed militarisation.

Reports of clashes between federal forces and Tigray fighters in Mai Degusha, a contested area of Tselemti district in western Tigray, fwere serious enough to lead flag carrier Ethiopian Airlines to suspend flights to several airports in the region for several days.

Around a million people fled that area during the war, and most remain in makeshift camps. The scale of displacement and destruction of infrastructure left the region facing a prolonged humanitarian and reconstruction challenge.

The African Union brokered the Pretoria Agreement truce between the government and the TPLF that established an interim administration to run the fertile Tigray region, bordering Ethiopia’s longtime rival, Eritrea.

Following that deal, the TPLF – designated a terrorist group during the war by the government – wanted its legal status as a political party to be reinstated. The process has been hampered by disputes and Ethiopia’s National Electoral Board recently revoked the TPLF’s licence, rendering the party ineligible to contest national elections set for this June.

The recent clashes in northern Ethiopia were triggered by a TDF operation to take control of disputed territories in western and southern Tigray. Fighting began on January 26 in the Tselemt area near the Tigray–Amhara border after TDF forces crossed the Tekeze River and clashed with the ENDF, with further confrontations on January 28–29.

Separately, TDF troops took control of the disputed Alamata and Korem areas in southern Tigray on January 29 after the ENDF command post withdrew. The following day, the ENDF carried out numerous drone strikes targeting vehicles in the Central Tigray zone, killing at least one person

TDF troops also clashed with regional rivals, the Tigray Peace Forces (TPF) – former TDF members dead set on removing the TPLF from the region. Armed clashes between them broke out on January 29 in the Wajirat area in South Eastern Tigray zone and in Megale woreda of the Afar region, east of Tigray. The clashes continued in Afar the next day.

“This fighting is the most significant confrontation between the TDF and the ENDF since the end of the northern Ethiopia conflict,” writes Jalale Getachew Birru, Senior Analyst, East Africa at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), an independent, impartial global monitor that collects, analyses, and maps data on conflict and protest. “Up until these recent clashes, ACLED records only a few minor skirmishes between the two actors since November 2022.”

The current TDF operation appears to be part of a wider territorial push, he cautions, noting that ACLED has confirmed that the TPLF has decided to take over the disputed areas of Welkait, Tsegede, Humera, and Tselemt by force.

“The TPLF-aligned Interim Regional Administration of Tigray’s president, Tadesse Werede, admitted that the TDF crossed the Tekeze River to control Tselemt. He justified the operation, citing the federal government’s failure to address the TPLF’s main aim related to the internally displaced ethnic Tigray people (IDPs) and disputed territories.

“The TPLF seeks to establish control over the disputed areas and dismantle the current pro-Amhara local administration established during the northern Ethiopia conflict, before overseeing the return of IDPs, and then negotiating their future status. Prior to the current TDF campaign, the federal government’s position has been to first facilitate the return of IDPs to these territories and then organize a referendum to determine whether they will fall under the Amhara or Tigray administration.”

While the TPLF has so far operated alone, Birru notes, some Fano militias — Amhara ethnic armed groups — and the Eritrea military have aligned with the TPLF in the past year, reversing their previous alignment with the Ethiopian government during the northern Ethiopia conflict and raising concerns of potentially expanding the conflict.

“While some experts have expressed concerns of a direct conflict between the two countries, a direct confrontation between Ethiopia and Eritrea remains unlikely. Instead, the developments along the Tigray-Amhara border point to the potential for the two sides to support rival rebel groups.”