Firearm violence across Central Europe remains among the lowest in the world, but the region continues to play a role in the illicit circulation of weapons, according to a new report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.

The study, published on March 17, finds that countries including Poland, Czech Republic and Slovakia have successfully reduced gun trafficking over the past decade through tighter regulation and cross-border enforcement cooperation. However, it warns that legacy weapons stockpiles and the long-term impact of the war in Ukraine pose significant emerging risks.

“Firearm violence remains exceptionally low by both European and global standards,” the report said, noting that organised crime groups in the region have “largely transitioned away from weapon-based operations toward activities such as drug distribution, fraud and cybercrime.”

Yet despite this relative stability, the authors stressed that central Europe still exerts an outsized influence on the continent’s illicit arms markets.

From source to safeguard

A decade ago, parts of central Europe were deeply embedded in European gun trafficking networks. Weak regulatory frameworks allowed weapons to be converted, reactivated or insufficiently deactivated before being sold onward.

“Historically, regulatory gaps in deactivation standards and conversion practices positioned parts of central Europe – particularly the Czech Republic and Slovakia – within broader European firearm trafficking networks,” the v report said.

Weapons originating in these countries “flowed from these countries toward western and northern European criminal markets,” while Poland “functioned primarily as a transit corridor facilitating the movement of firearms across the region”. 

These dynamics made the region a key supplier for illicit markets elsewhere in Europe, even as domestic gun violence remained comparatively rare.

That picture has shifted markedly over the past decade. “Harmonised European Union standards, strengthened export controls and sustained multinational enforcement operations have significantly altered trafficking dynamics,” Global Initiative said.

As a result, “conversion-driven trafficking has declined from earlier peak levels,” with fewer cases reported compared to the 2010–2016 period. The findings suggest that “coordinated legislative and enforcement responses can effectively address transnational threats.”

The report highlights that countries that once played a role in supplying illegal firearms abroad now exhibit some of the lowest levels of gun violence globally.

“Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia exhibit exceptionally low levels of firearm violence by European and global standards,” it said.

Even a recent surge in legal gun ownership, driven by security concerns following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has not translated into increased violence.

“The dramatic growth in legal ownership across the region… has been successfully integrated into regulatory frameworks without corresponding increases in violence,” the report noted.

Law enforcement officials across the region consistently report that firearms now play only a secondary role in criminal activity. “Firearms serve only supporting roles for criminal activities, with no organised crime groups treating arms as their primary business,” the report said.

Instead, criminal networks have shifted toward less risky and more profitable activities. “Contemporary criminal networks have decisively shifted away from armed operations, preferring economically lucrative, lower-risk activities including drug distribution, fraud and cybercrime,” it added.

Persistent vulnerabilities

Despite progress, the report identifies several lingering weaknesses that continue to enable illicit arms circulation.

“Legacy stockpiles continue circulating through criminal networks, and weapons deactivated under older, less rigorous standards remain in circulation,” it said.

These older weapons, often inadequately neutralised, can be reactivated and reintroduced into illegal markets.

Export controls also remain a concern. The report documents cases suggesting that weapons produced in central Europe have reached sanctioned destinations.

“Research documented cases in which Slovak-manufactured weapons appeared in Russian hands and Czech firearms and ammunition reached the Russian market through intermediary states despite sanctions,” it said. Such cases “suggest sophisticated sanctions evasion mechanisms that current verification systems fail to prevent.”

The report calls for stronger end-user verification and tighter monitoring of arms exports to close these gaps.

Ukraine war casts long shadow

While current evidence shows limited spillover from the war in Ukraine into neighbouring EU countries, analysts warn that the long-term risks are significant.

“Current evidence does not indicate substantial Ukrainian weapons inflows into Poland, the Czech Republic or Slovakia,” the report said.

However, it cautioned that “the scale of weapons circulating during the conflict creates a structural risk environment.”

Should weapons be diverted on a large scale after the war, the consequences could be far-reaching. “Expanded black-market supply could increase criminal access to firearms and intensify organised criminal activity across the region,” the report warned.

The central question, it added, is whether existing institutions can cope with such a scenario.

The report draws parallels with post-conflict regions such as the Western Balkans, where widespread weapons proliferation had long-lasting social consequences.

“International experience… demonstrates that large-scale weapon proliferation, combined with widespread combat trauma among returning veterans, produces sustained increases in homicide, domestic violence and suicide by firearm,” it said. These effects, it added, can persist “for decades.” 

With millions of weapons estimated to be in circulation in Ukraine and large numbers of returning soldiers potentially lacking adequate psychological support, similar risks could emerge. “With Ukrainian firearm-related crime already rising sharply during the conflict and an estimated 2mn military personnel facing inadequate psychological support, the conditions for such dynamics are present,” the report said.

Even limited spillover into neighbouring countries could have a noticeable impact. “For neighbouring states with historically low levels of gun violence, even modest spillover could significantly alter patterns of interpersonal violence and public health.”

Emerging threats

Beyond traditional trafficking routes, the report highlights new and evolving risks. Among them is the emergence of more violent criminal actors. “Georgian criminal groups operating in Poland have been identified as ‘the most brutal’ and most likely to use firearms,” it said.

Digital platforms also pose growing challenges. “Encrypted platforms facilitate both trafficking coordination and radicalisation,” the report noted, pointing to the role of online networks and the dark web in enabling illicit activity.

Meanwhile, countries such as Romania, Hungary and Moldova are emerging as potentially important transit routes.

The study identifies six key vulnerabilities, including gaps in post-conflict preparedness, weaknesses in export control enforcement, and shortcomings in weapons marking and traceability.

“Inadequate serialisation at source undermines post-seizure attribution,” it said, highlighting the importance of better tracking systems.

It also criticised reactive policymaking. “Reform typically follows mass-casualty events rather than anticipating emerging risks,” the report noted. To address these challenges, the authors call for a more proactive and coordinated approach.

“These dynamics underline the importance of preventive frameworks, strengthened export control implementation, improved marking and traceability mechanisms, enhanced online monitoring and deeper regional cooperation,” the report concluded.