Chinese purchases from Nigeria rose 81% in the first half of 2026, according to the Chinese-language version of official remarks by Ambassador Yu Dunhai, far outpacing growth in trade in the opposite direction. Yet the increase has barely altered a heavily imbalanced trading relationship.

Bilateral trade rose 35% year on year to $17.4bn, while Chinese imports from Nigeria reached $2.25bn. The figures imply Chinese exports to Nigeria of about $15.15bn, almost 6.7 times as much.

The reported totals and growth rates suggest Chinese exports to Nigeria increased by about 30% from a year earlier. Nigerian sales to China grew much faster, but from a far smaller base.

China's embassy has published slightly different versions of the headline figures. Yu's Chinese-language remarks put bilateral trade at $17.4bn and imports from Nigeria at $2.25bn, while English-language material rounded the figures to $18bn and $2.3bn.

Nigeria's own statistics show an even wider nominal gap, although the two countries' datasets are not directly comparable. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures for the first two quarters put Nigerian imports from China at NGN11.01 trillion and exports to China at roughly NGN1.09 trillion. On that measure, imports were about 10 times exports.

China accounted for 39.27% of Nigerian imports in the first half and 41.02% in the second quarter. Machinery, telecommunications equipment, solar modules, agricultural machinery, herbicides and other manufactured and industrial goods feature prominently in those flows.

The divergence between the Chinese and Nigerian bilateral totals is too large to treat either as a mirror image of the other. NBS values imports on a cost, insurance and freight basis and exports free on board, while differences in customs timing, re-exports and the treatment of country of origin and final destination can also affect bilateral data. No published reconciliation of the H1 figures has been identified.

Lower tariffs open the door wider

Beijing removed one impediment to Nigerian exports in May when it extended zero-tariff treatment to Nigeria and 19 other African countries with which it has diplomatic relations but which are not classified as least-developed economies.

The measure broadened a regime already applied to 33 African least-developed countries from December 2024. It runs until April 30, 2028, with tariff-quota products receiving the zero rate only within their quotas.

For qualifying Nigerian goods, the immediate effect is the removal of Chinese import duties. Yu has cited sesame, cattle-bone granules and liquefied propane among products benefiting from lower tariffs and said Chinese imports from Nigeria grew by more than 40% year on year in both May and June.

The 81% increase for the first half cannot, however, be attributed to the tariff change alone because four of the six months preceded its introduction on May 1.

Chinese customs data showed imports from Africa rising 23.5% year on year in May and June, while Yu said Chinese estimates put the zero-tariff policy's uplift to African exports at about 6%. The embassy has not published an independent methodology for that calculation.

Tariffs are only part of the cost of entering the Chinese market. Agricultural and food exporters must also comply with sanitary, phytosanitary and quarantine rules, while commercial viability depends on sufficient scale, certification and logistics capacity.

For Nigerian exporters, widening the range of goods allowed into China may prove as important as the tariff concession itself. A zero tariff has limited value where products lack regulatory approval, reliable supply or the scale needed to compete with other suppliers.

The production question

Tariff access can increase Nigerian exports to China; local production can also reduce what Nigeria imports from China.

China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao and Nigeria's Industry, Trade and Investment Minister Jumoke Oduwole signed a Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Development in March. It envisages negotiations on goods, services, investment, digital trade and green development, alongside co-operation on Nigerian manufacturing and agricultural transformation. It remains a framework for further negotiation rather than a completed trade agreement.

Nigeria is also pressing Chinese companies to move beyond conventional contracting towards co-investment and local production. Power Minister Joseph Olasunkanmi Tegbe said in September that Chinese partners should bring capital, technology and technical expertise into generation, transmission and industrial investment.

One concrete example is TBEA Co Ltd (SSE:600089), which has committed to establish a power-equipment industrial park in Nigeria producing transformers, switchgear, cables and other equipment for domestic and regional markets.

Such investment could reduce import dependence if it substitutes for equipment now sourced from China.

That approach is consistent with the 2024 China-Nigeria joint statement, which called for increased Nigerian exports to China and for Chinese-backed plants serving domestic and export markets.

Chinese embassy figures put bilateral trade at $28bn in 2025 and Chinese direct investment in Nigeria at $690mn, up 103% from a year earlier. Those figures are Chinese government data and are not necessarily compiled on the same basis as Nigerian investment statistics.

The effect on the trade balance will depend on the composition of investment. Factories that replace imported Chinese equipment or process Nigerian commodities for export could gradually narrow the gap, while construction projects relying heavily on imported machinery may increase Chinese investment without having the same effect.

Neither shift is yet clearly visible in the H1 figures. The 81% increase in Chinese purchases is substantial, but the absence of a detailed product breakdown leaves open whether it represents diversification or simply greater volumes and values of existing commodity exports.

Full-year data should provide a better test. A rise in Nigerian exports would be notable; a rise accompanied by a broader range of processed and manufactured products would indicate a more consequential change in the economic relationship.