Bosnia's main ethnic parties appeared to be strengthening their grip on power in the October 4 elections, preliminary results showed, potentially complicating the country's bid to join the European Union and prolonging a political deadlock that has frustrated voters and Western powers alike.

With 92.3% of polling stations processed, the Bosniak nationalist Party of Democratic Action (SDA) was the largest party in the race for the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of Bosnia and Herzegovina, taking 19.89% of the vote, or 240,762 ballots, according to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission.

The Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the dominant party among Bosnia's Serbs and led by Milorad Dodik, was second nationally with 16.44%, followed by the multi-ethnic Social Democratic Party (SDP) with 9.39%.

The coalition around the main Bosnian Croat party, HDZ BiH, was fourth with 8%, while a list led by Republika Srpska opposition politician Draško Stanivuković took 5.99%. The results are preliminary and votes are still being processed.

In the race for the three-member presidency, Denis Bećirović, representing the United for the State coalition, led with 38.03% for the Bosniak seat, ahead of SDA leader Bakir Izetbegović on 34.25%. Bećirović is a staunch advocate of Bosnia's EU and Nato integration.

SNSD candidate Željka Cvijanović had a strong lead for the Serb seat, with 55.6% of the vote after 80% of polling stations were processed. HDZ BiH candidate Darijana Filipović was leading for the Croat seat with 48.19%, convincingly ahead of rival candidates.

SNSD victories 

Dodik declared victory for his SNSD across all levels of government after the first preliminary results were released, also indicating a victory for the party's candidate for the presidency of Bosnia's Serb entity Republika Srpska.

"I declare victory at all levels. Thank you to everyone. This is a result similar to that of 20 years ago," Dodik said, reported Klix.ba.

He also linked the result to the political climate in the United States, saying that without Donald Trump's return to the White House, his party might have been in a weaker position.

In Republika Srpska, the Serb entity that makes up one of Bosnia's two autonomous regions, the SNSD was on 38.93% with nearly 87% of votes counted for the entity's parliament, and Dodik's son Igor Dodik topping the list. Stanivuković's Movement for a Safe Srpska was second on 14.19%, followed by SDS on 12.27%. The party's candidate Savo Minić is on track to secure the entity's presidency. 

Complex political system

Bosnia's complex political system was established under the 1995 Dayton peace agreement, which ended the 1992-95 war and divided the country between the Serb-dominated Republika Srpska and the Bosniak- and Croat-majority Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. A weak central government and a three-member presidency link the two entities.

The arrangement has frequently produced political stalemate, with leaders from the two entities and the country's three main ethnic groups often unable to agree on decisions at the state level.

That paralysis has become a major obstacle to Bosnia's EU ambitions. The country received EU candidate status in December 2022 and the bloc agreed in 2024 to open accession negotiations. But formal talks have yet to begin because Bosnia has not completed key reforms, including measures to strengthen judicial oversight and anti-corruption legislation.

A stronger showing by the established ethnic parties could make it harder to overcome those divisions, particularly if the new parliament reproduces the confrontations that have repeatedly blocked state-level decisions.

The election also took place against a backdrop of competing foreign influence. The EU wants to bring Bosnia and other Western Balkan countries into the bloc, while Russia has maintained close ties with the leadership of Republika Srpska and supported its political autonomy. The United States remains a major player in Bosnia, both through its role in the Dayton peace settlement and its broader efforts to limit Russian influence.

Washington is also backing a proposed $1.5bn gas pipeline intended to connect Bosnia to Croatia and provide an alternative to Russian energy supplies. The project has become part of a wider contest over Bosnia's future energy orientation, with the EU raising concerns about the transparency of the selection of the US-linked investor.

Tech issues 

Election day was marked by some problems with the introduction of new voting technology. The election watchdog coalition Pod Lupom said it had recorded 46 serious violations by 9:30 a.m., including problems involving election materials, polling procedures and access for observers. Only 52.1% of polling stations opened at exactly 7 a.m., while another 37% opened within 15 minutes. The new technology was nevertheless operational before voting began at 99% of the polling stations observed, Pod Lupom said.

Turnout was 28.8% by 3 p.m., 8.12 percentage points below the level recorded at the same time in the 2022 elections, according to the election commission. The relatively low participation reflected the frustration of many voters with a political system that has changed little despite years of promises of reform.