Signals from both monetary and fiscal authorities suggest Indonesia is quietly expanding its funding toolkit ahead of an ambitious 2026 policy agenda. At the centre of this shift is Bank Indonesia’s swelling surplus position, new rules governing its transfer to the state, and the government’s plan to channel large-scale fiscal resources into priority programmes such as the Free Nutritious Meals (Makan Bergizi Gratis, MBG) initiative, Tempo.co reports.

A larger-than-usual central bank surplus

During a working session with the House of Representatives’ Finance Commission on November 12, Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo indicated that the central bank’s capital-to-monetary-liabilities ratio could exceed 10% by the end of the year. This threshold is significant because, under Finance Minister Regulation No. 179/2022, it enables Bank Indonesia to transfer its remaining surplus to the state budget.

Bank Indonesia defines its surplus as the difference between annual income and expenditure. As of September 2025, the central bank recorded a surplus of IDR77.9 trillion (approximately $4.6bn). This figure is projected to moderate to IDR68.7 trillion (around $4.1bn) by year-end, Antara News reports.

Total income for the period reached IDR234.3 trillion ($14.0bn), while total spending stood at IDR165.7 trillion ($9.9bn). Policy-related operations contributed IDR35.2 trillion ($2.1bn) to the surplus, while operational activities accounted for IDR33.3 trillion ($1.9bn). These numbers reflect the unusually strong earnings environment created by higher interest rates, large-scale liquidity operations, and elevated returns on financial assets over the past two years.

New rules, greater flexibility

The fiscal framework governing Bank Indonesia’s surplus was revised at the end of 2025. On December 30, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa signed Finance Minister Regulation No. 115/2025, amending earlier provisions on non-tax state revenue derived from the central bank, Antara News reports.

The key change was the introduction of Article 22A, which allows the finance minister to request a transfer of part of Bank Indonesia’s interim surplus before the fiscal year has concluded. Such a request can be made if state revenue performance requires support or if there are urgent financing needs within the State Budget (APBN).

This adjustment does not mandate transfers, but it materially expands fiscal optionality. In practice, it gives the government access to an additional liquidity buffer without formally raising debt or revising tax policy, as long as Bank Indonesia’s capital adequacy remains above the prescribed threshold.

Financing an expansive 2026 agenda

The timing of these regulatory changes coincides with the government’s plans to scale up spending on flagship programmes in 2026, Tempo.co reports. One of the most prominent is the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) programme, which Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto confirmed will be allocated IDR335 trillion (approximately $19.7bn) from the state budget next year.

The programme is designed to reach around 82mn beneficiaries nationwide and is positioned as both a social policy and an economic stimulus. According to Airlangga, the funding structure is fully backed by the APBN, making the programme fiscally secure and operationally sustainable.

A distinguishing feature of the MBG rollout is its delivery mechanism through Satuan Pelayanan Pemenuhan Gizi (SPPG) units. These units are paid in advance, before production begins, creating predictable and robust cash flows for operators. This pre-financing model reduces working capital constraints, accelerates capital turnover, and has already encouraged operators to expand by setting up additional kitchens.

In regions such as Lamongan, local participation in building and running SPPG facilities has underscored the programme’s multiplier effect, linking central government spending to local investment, small businesses, and employment.

Macro impact: Stimulus at scale

From the total IDR335 trillion allocation, the government expects close to IDR80 trillion (about $4.7bn) to be disbursed to the grassroots level each quarter. This quarterly injection is more than double the size of the national fiscal stimulus deployed in the first quarter of the previous year, which was just under IDR37 trillion.

According to Airlangga, this scale of direct spending is expected to support consumption, boost local production, and generate new employment. The programme is projected to absorb up to three million workers, based on estimates that each one percentage point of economic growth creates roughly 400,000 jobs.

Under optimistic assumptions, MBG alone could contribute as much as seven percentage points to economic growth. Even if only half of that potential is realised, the programme would still add around three percentage points to GDP growth during its implementation period.

The bigger picture

Taken together, the stronger-than-expected surplus at Bank Indonesia, the revised rules enabling earlier surplus transfers, and the aggressive scaling of social and economic programmes point to a more coordinated monetary–fiscal posture heading into 2026.

While Bank Indonesia remains formally independent, the new framework allows surplus resources generated by monetary operations to be mobilised more flexibly in support of fiscal priorities. In an environment of uncertain global growth and tighter external financing conditions, this internal buffer could play a meaningful role in sustaining Indonesia’s growth ambitions without significantly increasing debt.

The challenge will be maintaining the balance: ensuring fiscal support does not undermine central bank credibility or capital strength, while still delivering the economic momentum the government is targeting for the next phase of Indonesia’s development.