The far-right Alternative for Germany's (AfD) sweeping victory in Saxony-Anhalt has triggered a strong response across Central Europe, raising the question of whether the result is an isolated protest vote or an early warning of a broader nationalist shift that could reshape European politics, including those of Germany’s near neighbours.

The AfD won 43.8% of the vote in the September 6 state election, more than doubling its result from 2021 and taking 39 of the 83 seats in the state parliament. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) fell to 17.2%, while his coalition partner, the centre-left Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), won just 9.3%.

The AfD fell three seats short of an outright majority, meaning it cannot govern alone. Germany's established parties have maintained a so-called firewall against cooperation with the party, leaving the formation of a government in Magdeburg uncertain. Still, the result was seized upon by nationalist parties elsewhere in Europe as evidence that voters are turning against mainstream political establishments, triggering a strong reaction from some of Germany’s neighbours. 

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned against celebrating the result. “In Poland, only idiots or traitors can rejoice at the triumph of AfD in Germany,” he wrote on Facebook. 

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called the AfD's performance a worrying sign. “The president and our right wing demonise today's democratic, pro-European Germany, and they'll still come to miss it,” he wrote on X. 

In a separate post, he also linked the party to Warsaw’s ongoing pressure on Germany for WW2 reparations, writing: “I wonder if our nationalists think that Germany governed by the AfD would be more inclined to pay reparations to Poland.”

For Poland, the party's rise carries particular weight because of its positions on Russia, Ukraine and European integration, commented Marcin Zaborowski, Europe editor at Polish broadcaster TVP World. He also highlighted the AfD's opposition to military support for Ukraine, its calls for lifting sanctions on Russia and its support for renewed energy links with Moscow.

The German result has exposed the divide in Czech politics. Tomio Okamura, leader of the junior ruling Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, welcomed the result in a Facebook post. “Congratulations to AfD on their victory in the elections in Germany!” he wrote. 

Former Czech prime minister Petr Fiala, by contrast, called the result a “political earthquake” and a warning to mainstream politicians. “The AfD's offer, which has won with a mixture of nationalism, completely unrealistic promises, nostalgia for the old times, fear of the future and pro-Russian sentiments, is quite frightening,” he wrote on Facebook. 

The competing reactions reflect a wider European dilemma that has preoccupied mainstream politicians of whether they should isolate the far right, adopt some of its policy positions or try to win back voters by offering alternatives on issues such as migration, living costs and declining public services.

Local revolt or national turning point?

Saxony-Anhalt cannot be treated as a straightforward proxy for Germany as a whole. The state has around 2.1mn inhabitants and has long been an AfD stronghold, with the party consistently performing well above its national average, according to a comment on the election by Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia programmes at Chatham House.

"The main significance clearly lies in the way the AfD has mobilised voters and kindled a more positive political appeal. That may prove more consequential than whether the AfD manages to form a government," Roos said. 

He described the result as a possible "forewarning tremor" if support for mainstream parties continues to erode. That erosion is particularly significant for Merz. A poor performance in another eastern state election later this month could increase pressure on the chancellor and intensify debate inside the CDU about how to respond to the AfD.

If the AfD succeeds in leading the government in Saxony-Anhalt, it would gain control over four votes in Germany's Bundesrat, the upper house, giving it a limited but potentially useful opportunity to influence federal legislation. An AfD-led state would also provide the party with a platform from which to demonstrate how its policies work in practice, particularly on migration, policing, education and cultural policy. Its foreign-policy influence would remain limited because international relations and defence are federal responsibilities. However, a governing role could give greater visibility to its opposition to sanctions on Russia and military assistance to Ukraine.

The implications could ultimately depend less on what happens in Magdeburg than on whether other European voters follow the same path. Elections in Sweden, France, Poland, Italy and Spain will provide further tests of the strength of Europe's nationalist parties. 

As IntelliNews has previously reported, the EU’s renewed drive to expand eastwards could face its biggest political obstacle yet if French far-right leader Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 presidential election, potentially derailing accession hopes for Ukraine and the Western Balkans at one of the most critical moments in the bloc's history.

In several of those countries, mainstream parties are already under pressure from movements campaigning on migration, national sovereignty and dissatisfaction with the EU. For Germany's neighbours, the AfD's result is therefore both a domestic German development and a test of Europe's political direction.

“A far-right victory of this magnitude strengthens radical-right actors across Europe, emboldens sovereigntist narratives, and constrains Germany’s room for compromise on climate, migration and budgetary issues in Brussels,” said a comment by Tabea Schaumann, policy analyst at the European Policy Centre (EPC). “The vote is a continental warning signal, especially given the important upcoming elections in key EU states in 2027,” she added.