Uzbekistan should sustain strong economic growth over the next two years, underpinned by domestic demand, investment and structural reforms, even as external risks persist, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) April 2026, published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on April 10.

Central Asia’s second largest economy expanded by 7.7% in 2025, accelerating from 6.7% in 2024 and exceeding earlier expectations, as all major sectors contributed to growth. 

Services remained the main driver, rising 14.7%, supported by trade, logistics, digital services and tourism, while industry excluding construction grew 6.8% and construction surged 14.2% on the back of housing and infrastructure investment, said the ADO. 

Agriculture also expanded by 4.4%, reflecting gains in crop and livestock production.

The ADB says in the ADO that it anticipates growth in Uzbekistan will moderate but remain strong at 6.7% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, with forecasts based on assumptions made in March under heightened global uncertainty. Assumptions included an anticipated early stabilisation of the Middle East conflict, but that outlook has since become less certain.

Domestic demand continued to anchor Uzbek expansion in 2025. Real household incomes rose 9.2%, while investment increased 10.5%, driven by enterprise resources, household savings and foreign direct investment, particularly in manufacturing, logistics, construction and urban development. 

Consumer activity remained buoyant, with online cash turnover up 17.0% and receipts from trade and financial services rising 24.7%. 

“Uzbekistan enters the next two years from a position of strength, supported by resilient domestic demand, high levels of investment and ongoing structural reforms,” said Kanokpan Lao-Araya, ADB country director for Uzbekistan. She added that the key challenge would be shifting toward “more productive, private sector led growth.”

Macroeconomic conditions have improved alongside the expansion. Inflation fell faster than expected to 7.3% in 2025, down from 9.8% in 2024, supported by tight monetary policy, exchange rate appreciation and easing cost pressures. 

It is projected to decline further to 6.5% in 2026 and converge toward the central bank’s 5.0% target in 2027, although energy tariff adjustments and food supply risks could slow the pace of disinflation. 

Fiscal consolidation continued, with the budget deficit narrowing to 2.1% of GDP in 2025 from 4.0% a year earlier, while social spending was maintained. 

External balances also strengthened: exports rose 24.0%, remittances increased 27.2% to $18.9bn and the current account deficit narrowed to around 2.5% of GDP, according to the ADO. International reserves remained ample, supported by inflows from trade, tourism and remittances.

Despite these gains, the ADB highlights structural challenges. Uzbekistan’s reliance on gold exports, which last year accounted for 29.3% of total exports, continues to expose the economy to commodity price volatility. 

The ADO stresses the need to accelerate state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, deepen regulatory modernisation and advance accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), a move that is expected to anchor reforms, improve competitiveness and attract higher-quality investment. 

More broadly, risks stem from global financial volatility, trade uncertainty and potential fiscal pressures linked to state enterprises, as well as prolonged geopolitical tensions.

Across Central Asia and neighbouring economies, growth is expected to moderate as external conditions soften. Regional expansion is forecast at 4.2% in 2026, before edging up to 4.4% in 2027.