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Romania Country Report - September 2015

September 27, 2015
The report covers info as of September 25. Key Points • PM Ponta faces no-confidence vote on September 28; rules out resignation despite formal indictment • IMF to review Romania’s 2016 budget planning in October; SBA expires on Sep 25; follow-up possible • GDP growth eases to 3.3% in Q2 on slower advance of industry, construction • Romania revises upward 2016-18 GDP growth projection to above 4% p.a. on fiscal stimulus • Industrial production up 3.8% y/y in July • Construction works up 15.4% y/y in July • Retail sales up 9.6% y/y in July on lower VAT for food • Headline inflation hits negative 1.9% y/y in August on VAT rate cut • Lawmakers endorse Fiscal Code; government expects 4% growth in 2016 • Public debt-to-GDP ratio eases 0.1pp to 37.8% of GDP at end-June • Bank loans rise on year at end-Aug, first time in two years • BCR abandons plans to sell €2.7bn bad loan bundle amid disappointing bids – sources • Eurobank’s Romanian divisions to sell €500mn NPL bundle • Investment fund JC Flowers buys 25% of Romania's Banca Carpatica • C/A deficit narrows by 65% y/y to €347mn in Jan-Jul • Exports up 5.4% y/y in July as growth rate slows • Gross external debt down 4.3% y/y at €90.6bn at end-Jul • Foreign currency reserves up €189mn m/m to €29.34bn at end-August • Government to decide on its 46% stake in Telekom Romania, IPO possible – minister • Government clashes with Electrica's minority stakeholders over €1.3bn penalty • Shareholders of Romania's Nuclearelectrica to meet on October 22 to endorse 1.4GW expansion
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