ED – this is bne IntelliNews's annual OUTLOOK report for Kenya. We are making forward-looking assessments for major Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world. What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth and what problems lie in store in the coming year? A detailed report that covers, business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets. Kenya enters 2026 with growth picking up, inflation well-anchored in the lower half of the central bank’s target band and confidence improving after the 2024–25 fiscal and debt scare, and associated anti-tax, anti-corruption protests, but with high debt, elevated non-performing loans (NPLs) and social pressures constraining policy space. The statistics agency KNBS estimates real GDP growth at 5.7% in 2023 and 4.7% in 2024. The finance ministry projects 5.3% growth in both 2025 and 2026, while the World Bank has lifted its 2025 forecast to 4.9%. A November 2025 Stanbic PMI reading of 55.0 – a five-year high – signals strong private-sector momentum into 2026. Inflation is low and stable. KNBS data show headline inflation at 4.5% y/y in November 2025, within the 2.5–7.5% target range. The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has cut the policy rate in nine consecutive meetings to 9% as of October 2025, while still projecting 5.2% growth in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026. Fiscal accounts are on a slow consolidation path under the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). The 2025/26 budget projects KES4.29 trillion expenditure, KES3.32 trillion revenue and a deficit of about 4.3–4.8% of GDP, down from 4.9% in 2024/25, although subsequent spending pressures and tax-reform pushback have kept the deficit near 4.9%. Debt remains high but manageable. The Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) reports public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt of KES10.58trillion at end-June 2024 (65.7% of GDP, about $81.7bn), with the latest Debt Sustainability Analysis putting the present-value (PV) ratio at 64% of GDP – above the 55% benchmark but still “sustainable” under a high-risk-of-distress assessment. The finance minister targets a reduction in the key debt/GDP ratio from 58.1% to 52.8% by 2027/28. Kenya has regained market access and is actively managing liabilities. A $1.5bn Eurobond issued in February 2024 at a 9.75% coupon helped buy back most of a 2024 maturity, and fresh 2033 and 2038 Eurobonds worth $1.5bn in October 2025 are refinancing 2028 notes. A new $1bn debt-for-food-security swap with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), plus prospective IMF support in 2026, should further ease refinancing pressures. The banking sector is liquid and well-capitalised but faces elevated NPLs – around 16–17% of loans – and exposure to sovereign risk. Poverty remains high despite decent growth: World Bank model-based estimates suggest that around a quarter of Kenyans remain below the international poverty line, with national poverty still in the high 30% range in 2024–25, and likely to remain so in the medium term.