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Bulgaria Country Report - November 2013

December 9, 2013
This report covers the main macroeconomic releases of November 2013 for Bulgaria as well as financial and political trends in the country during this period. The Bulgarian economy expanded 0.7% year on year in the third quarter of 2013, the statistics office said on December 4. This marks a slight downward revision of the preliminary estimate of 0.8%. In quarterly terms, the seasonally adjusted GDP expanded by 0.5% in Q3, also a slightly weaker rate than the flash estimate of 0.6%. The European Commission cut its projections for Bulgaria's real GDP growth to 0.5% in 2013 and 1.5% in 2014. Michele Shannon, the IMF's mission chief for Bulgaria, said in an interview for Capital Daily that preserving macroeconomic stability is a key prerequisite for higher levels of growth in Bulgaria. The Bulgarian aggregate price level recorded a third consecutive annual decline as the consumer price index went down by 1.4% year on year in October after falling by 1.6% in September and 0.7% in August. The unemployment rate increased 0.5pps year on year to 12% in the third quarter of 2013 on higher number of people entering the labor market in search of a job. Key Points: • The overall business climate indicator increased 1.7 points month on month in November 2013 on the improved outlook in industry and services after falling 2.1 points in the previous month. • The calendar-adjusted industrial production index registered its first annual increase since March, rising by 0.5% year on year in September. • The approval rating of Bulgaria's government declined to 26% in November from 30% the month before. • The IMF has said that Bulgaria’s budget deficit target of 1.8% of GDP in 2014 is justifiable. but there are revenue-side risks associated with lower-than-expected domestic demand, unrealized gains from planned administrative reforms, and subdued inflation.
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