Zimbabwe’s mineral export earnings, excluding gold and silver, more than doubled to $4.735bn in the first nine months of 2026, driven mainly by higher lithium prices and sales, according to the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ).

Earnings rose 101.8% from $2.347bn a year earlier, while export volumes increased 23.4% to 4.738mn tonnes from 3.840mn tonnes, The Herald reported on October 8, citing MMCZ general manager Nomusa Moyo.

Lithium overtook platinum group metals (PGMs) as the leading revenue earner among MMCZ-marketed minerals, generating $2.159bn, or 45.6% of total sales, compared with $1.729bn from PGMs.

Spodumene concentrate sales rose 368.2% to $1.812bn, supported by a 283% increase in the average realised price to $1,483 per tonne from $387 a year earlier.

The surge leaves Zimbabwe exposed to fluctuations in lithium prices. An October 8 analysis by Equity Axis estimated that a 10% decline in spodumene prices, assuming unchanged sales volumes, would cut export revenue by about $181mn, equivalent to roughly 42% of lithium’s earnings lead over PGMs.

“We attribute lithium’s emergence as the leading revenue earner to the beneficiation work being driven by Government, alongside producers’ investment and operational efforts,” Moyo said.

However, spodumene concentrate accounted for most lithium earnings, while more advanced processing made a smaller but growing contribution.

Petalite sales increased 583.3% to $155.29mn, while lithium sulphate generated $190.52mn from approximately 33,807 tonnes, having recorded no sales a year earlier.

“This demonstrates the contribution that further processing is beginning to make to export earnings,” Moyo said.

China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (SSE: 603799) began exporting lithium sulphate from its $400mn Arcadia processing facility in April. The plant has annual capacity of approximately 50,000 tonnes but cannot process material from other producers.

Rival Chinese mining companies Sinomine Resource Group (SZSE: 002738) and Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group (SZSE: 002497) have announced plans to build their own lithium sulphate plants.

See IntelliNews: Africa’s push for local mineral processing reshapes mining investment

Zimbabwe suspended exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrates in February. In April, the mines ministry set conditions for resuming shipments, including company quotas and written commitments to build processing plants, while keeping a 10% export tax on concentrates. Producers face a January 1, 2027 deadline for shifting from concentrate exports to processed lithium products.

Processing capacity remains a constraint. Lithium Producers’ Association chairman Innocent Rukweza warned in June that only one of Zimbabwe’s seven major lithium producers had completed a processing facility capable of meeting the requirements, calling for the deadline to be extended. Mines Minister Polite Kambamura rejected requests for a postponement in July.

See IntelliNews: Who stands to gain most from the UN’s critical minerals push in Africa?

In August, the Lithium Producers’ Association projected approximately $1bn in turnover from lithium sulphate exports. MMCZ recorded $190.52mn in lithium sulphate sales in the nine months to September.

See IntelliNews: Zimbabwe eyes $1bn turnover from lithium sulphate exports amid beneficiation drive

September mineral export earnings rose 116.6% year on year to $685.03mn, while volumes increased 70.8% to approximately 844,063 tonnes.

MMCZ attributed the broader improvement to stronger commodity prices, increased production, new markets and measures to curb mineral leakages.

Moyo said lithium demand would remain supported by battery manufacturing and energy-storage industries, although buyers were becoming increasingly selective. MMCZ expected commodity prices to remain above 2025 levels during the fourth quarter.

MMCZ markets Zimbabwe’s minerals excluding gold and silver, which fall outside its statutory mandate.