Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered US President Donald Trump a “mega deal” on July 17: we send you our advanced drones, you send us missiles.

Trump has changed tack since his “big announcement” on July 14 where he promised to sell Europe advanced weaponry to send to Ukraine and threatened Russia with 100% second sanctions if a ceasefire deal is not signed by September 1.

Zelenskiy’s offer comes as Trump’s weapon’s procurement deal looks like it might fall to pieces before it gets off the ground as only two European countries have confirmed they are willing to foot the bill.

Trump said that the US was sending 17 Patriot batteries that would arrive “within days”, which would be a game changer. Ukraine is estimated to have a total of seven batteries of the advanced air defence system – the only system that can bring down the barrage of missiles that Russia is currently raining down on Ukraine since May – whereas Zelenskiy asked for ten more at the recent Nato summit in the Hague, and Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) has previously said it needs a total of 22 to fully protect its biggest cities.

Trump said on July 16 that Patriot missiles were already en route to Ukraine, though Germany’s Defence Ministry said it had no knowledge of such a shipment.

Trump was almost certainly referring to the Patriot interceptor rockets that are the ammo for the system, not the full $1bn batteries as there are simply not enough Patriots systems available. The US-maker of the system, Raytheon Technologies, only produces half a dozen of the systems a year and is already heavily overloaded with orders.

Now Ukraine’s allies are desperately trying to scrounge together more Patriot systems and ammo to protect Ukraine from the hail of Russian missiles from existing stocks and those new systems Raytheon is expected to deliver in the coming months.

And there is also the issue of who is going to pay for these expensive weapons. Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte, who was in the Oval Office with Trump when he made his announcement, said a total of eight European allies would foot the bill. But the deal for Europe to pay for Ukraine’s weapons looks like it might fail before it gets off the ground. Since then four European countries have dropped out and most of the rest of Ukraine’s coalition of the willing partners remain uncommitted, including the nominal leaders of the coalition, France and the UK. Only Germany and Denmark have confirmed they will pay.

Mega deal

To avoid the weapons-procurement deal falling to pieces before it has gotten off the ground, Zelenskiy has played his Trump card: thanks to the war with Russia and Ukrainian innovation, it has taken over from Turkey to become the world’s preeminent producer of military drone technology. Under the latest US military procurement plans, the Trump administration intends to invest massively into expanding its drone capabilities and long-range missiles over conventional naval and aerial platforms. Ukraine’s long-distance drones that can accurately strike targets thousands of kilometres away are of especial interest.

Under the terms of Zelenskiy’s arms-for-technology offer, Ukraine Kyiv would supply combat-proven drones to Washington in exchange for American weapons systems, The New York Post reported on July 17.

"The people of America need this technology, and you need to have it in your arsenal," Zelenskiy said, referring to Ukraine’s long-range drones that were used in Operation Spiderweb on June 1 to destroy Russian strategic bombers deep in Russia’s heartlands. "I think this is really a mega deal, a win-win, as they say."

Under the proposal, the two countries would collaborate on the development of aviation and unmanned systems. While the specifics of the deal remain under negotiation, Zelenskiy said that Ukraine was ready to share its drone expertise with the US, as well as with European partners including Denmark, Norway, and Germany, who are part of the drone coalition to support Ukraine’s drone production.

Ukraine has rapidly expanded drone production in the last two years and is now making more than Russia, an estimated 2.5mn units in 2024. The drone-infested frontline has brought Russian advances to a virtual standstill, despite the fact that the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) continues to massively outgun Ukraine in almost all other aspects.

Ukraine intends to manufacture 30,000 long-range drones in 2025, including hybrid missile-drone systems such as the Palyanytsia and Peklo.

The need for Patriot missile batteries and ammo is pressing. US Ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker frankly admitted that Europe “doesn’t make the weapons Ukraine needs,” in comments earlier this week and said Washington was working “with haste” to expedite weapons deliveries on July 17.

“We are all moving with haste to facilitate this and get this done, and, you know, I think things are actually moving very quickly,” Whitaker said, but added that the US would not put itself at "a strategic disadvantage," by running down its own stocks too far. 

Where are the Patriots?

But where will the Patriots come from? Trump explicitly said that Europe is now responsible for supplying Ukraine and needs to pay for the weapons. However, there are a total of 18 Patriot systems in Europe and the allies have so far been reluctant to denude themselves of their own defences to support Ukraine. That might be changing now.

The US could supply Ukraine tomorrow as it holds over 60 Patriot batteries in its strategic reserve. Whitaker suggested that the White House is now considering tapping that reserve as the situation on the ground in Ukraine becomes increasingly desperate, but he also made it clear that the White House is dithering as its stock of the missiles is already well below the minimum; The Guardian reported last week, the Pentagon assess its stock to be only 25% of the strategic minimum/

Whitaker added that the US would avoid putting itself at “a strategic disadvantage” but acknowledged Ukraine’s “desperate” need for air defences to protect cities under Russian bombardment.

So far only three new Patriot batteries for Ukraine have been confirmed that will definitely arrive in the coming months.

Germany has also committed the two Patriot systems on order with Raytheon Technologies that are due for delivery soon. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius admitted this week that these batteries would come not in days or weeks but “in months.” Norway has also committed the one system on order that is also due soon.

Frenetic discussions are underway to scrounge together more systems for Kiv, including the direct transfer of US Patriot air defence systems from its reserves and the redeployment of existing systems from European partners.

The White House also told Switzerland on July 17 that the five systems it has on order will now be diverted to Ukraine, but likewise these systems are not due for delivery until sometime next year.

As the crisis intensifies, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hinted yesterday that Germany might additionally and immediately dismantle some of its existing 12 Patriot systems and send them to Kyiv, replacing them later when Raytheon has capacity to make more. That would also presumably demand a deal with Washington to bump this order up the production scale as Raytheon currently has a five-year backlog of orders for some 35 new Patriot systems from clients around the world in addition to US orders to replace the rundown domestic strategic reserves.

A German government spokesperson confirmed on July 14 that talks among European allies were ongoing to supply more than three Patriot systems to Ukraine. To date, the United States has delivered three Patriot batteries, Germany has provided three more, and a European coalition has contributed an additional unit.