The strikes on Iran carried out by the United States and Israel could push inflation in Poland higher while weakening economic growth over the next two years if disruptions to oil supplies and global trade persist, analysts at mBank said in a research note published on March 9.

Under a stress scenario linked to the conflict, Poland’s inflation would remain consistently above the baseline projection while GDP growth would slow noticeably from late 2026 onward, the bank said.

The scenario assumes a prolonged period of heightened tensions before any settlement emerges, potentially including a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to oil production sites or ports in the region.

Such disruptions would trigger a sharp rise in commodity prices and a major shock to supply chains, mBank said. The immediate effect would be higher prices, followed by weaker economic activity.

In the bank’s baseline outlook, Poland’s economy would expand 4.1% y/y in the third quarter of 2026 and accelerate to 4.2% by the end of that year. Under the stress scenario, growth would slow to 3.9% in the third quarter and fall to 3.5% by the fourth quarter.

The gap widens further in 2027. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2027 would drop to 2.7% under the stress scenario compared with 3.7% in the baseline. By the second quarter of 2027, growth would slow to 2.2%, about 1.2 percentage points below the base projection.

Inflation would follow the opposite path. Consumer price growth in the second quarter of 2026 would reach 3.8% under the war scenario compared with 2.7% in the baseline.

The divergence continues in early 2027. Inflation in the first quarter of 2027 would rise to 4.2% versus 2.5% in the baseline forecast.

Analysts said higher energy costs would be the main driver. Fuel prices alone could rise by roughly 16%–18% in March due to the conflict, while supply chain disruptions could also affect food and other goods prices.

At the same time, the supply shock would weigh on economic activity. The bank said the weaker growth outlook could combine with weather-related disruptions in early 2026, producing a particularly soft first quarter.

The inflation outlook also changes the path for monetary policy by the National Bank of Poland. The bank said earlier rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council had left the door open for the reference rate to fall to 3%, but the conflict has effectively closed that possibility.

Instead, mBank expects the easing cycle to stop with rates stabilising at the current level of 3.75%.

The bank also warned that geopolitical tensions may not disappear quickly even if fighting subsides. A likely outcome is a frozen conflict in which shipping through Hormuz eventually resumes but the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets persists.

That would keep energy prices above pre-war levels and leave inflation slightly elevated for several quarters while economic growth remains weaker than previously expected.