The US influence in the Gulf is fading as the war goes into its fifth week with no sign of ending and regional players are starting to cut deals with Tehran to end the attacks on their territories.

Oman and Qatar are both reportedly cutting deals in the last week that will take them off Iran’s target list. Qatar reportedly offered to return Iranian cash deposited in its banks and notably were not struck in last weekend’s widespread destruction where Iran hit most of the other countries in the region.

Neutral Oman has also largely been exempted as the only Gulf state that does not house a large US military base, although it does have security deals with America. Oman has also played a key role in mediating between the US and Tehran in pre-war nuclear deal talk. Now Tehran is reportedly offering to share control of the Strait of Hormuz with Muscat in a deal that would represent a major strategic defeat for the Trump administration if it goes ahead.

The Gulf states are increasingly angry at the Trump administration which was supposed to be a guarantor of security but instead unleashed the biggest war in the Middle East for decades, without consulting them and without taking their interest into account.

Initially, Trump promised to open the Strait of Hormuz with naval escorts through the narrow waterway but after a month it has become patently clear that the US Navy is defenceless against Iranian missiles and drones that line the shores of the key passageway. The entire Gulf region remains largely cut off from the international markets and their main source of income.

At the same time, the destruction of key assets is increasing in a tit-for-tat campaign that is being driven by Israel’s decision to target economic, as well as military, targets. Israel has hit power plants and Iran’s three steel plants that are its biggest source of foreign exchange earnings outside of the oil and gas business among other things.

The White House has openly criticised Tel Aviv for its overly destructive attacks that has led some to question Trump’s control over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who appears to have a separate agenda and intends to see Iran’s economy permanently wrecked.

As US president Donald Trump runs out of ideas, he has flip-flopped between threatening to bomb Iran into the stone ages and to simply pull out and leave the regional powers and Asia to clean up the mess. The Gulf states are starting to take matters into their own hands but remain undecided on if they should intervene militarily or seek a peace deal that Pakistan is attempting to broker. In the meantime, increasingly some Gulf leaders have begun to negotiate with Tehran to cut their own deals to mitigate the risk of attack.

Deals

Qatar has been particularly badly hurt after the Ras Laffan LNG plant was partially destroyed, taking out 17% of his energy production capacity for at least 3-5 years. It has reportedly done a deal with Tehran to return money deposited in Qatari banks, although details of the deal remain opaque. According to unconfirmed reports, Qatar may be offering Iran access to roughly $6bn in Iranian funds held in Qatari banks in exchange for a halt to Iranian strikes.

Oman is a more of natural ally for Iran as unlike most of the other states that rely heavily on the US for security assurances, Muscat has followed a policy of pragmatic neutrality. Its main port was hit by Iranian missiles early in the conflict, however, sources in Muscat told IntelliNews that the strike was a “mistake” and it has largely escaped further destruction since then.

Tehran has been reaching out to remake relations with its neighbours. It offered to share control of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman at the end of the war in a move that would be a major geopolitical failure for the Trump administration.

Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency claims Iranian diplomat Kazem Gharibabadi is drafting a proposal to “monitor” the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, describing the proposal as “intended to facilitate and ensure safe passage and provide better services to ships passing through this route,” The Times of Israel reported. Tanker traffic through the key oil-shipping route “should be supervised and coordinated” with the two countries.”

Separately, statements attributed to Iran’s Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi claim Tehran is seeking a greater role in the governance of the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with Oman.

“The future of the Strait of Hormuz will be determined by Iran and Oman, not external powers,” the minister is quoted as saying. Oman has yet to officially respond to the reports.

While the White House has yet to explain what its war goals are, Trump has a clearly stated policy of “energy dominance” and would have liked to take control of the Strait as among other things that would allow the US to throttle oil and gas deliveries to China. Venezuela also exported most of its oil to China, but following the decapitation of the Maduro regime in January, Venezuela’s oil export business has come under US control and those exports to China have ended.

Trump claims that peace talks have started and issued a 15-point plan that basically demands Iran demilitarise. That plan has been rejected out of hand by Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, who is now the de facto leader of the Islamic Republic and denied any talks have been held.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued his own three-point list of demands on March 21 that included, security guarantees, reparations and that the US withdraw its military from the region entirely.

China and Pakistan have since come up with a five-point list of concessions which is now under consideration.

US bases become a liability

Qatar is amongst the Gulf states considering kicking the US military out. Doha is home to CENTCOM, the US military headquarters in the region at the Al Udeid Air Base that has come under heavy bombardment by Iran.

The US has a total of 13 military bases in the region, and, in a surprise result, all of them were largely destroyed or badly damaged in the first week of hostilities – underscoring the US’ inability to protect either its own military installations or those of its host country.

Formerly seen as a guarantee against attack, US bases in the Gulf are increasingly being seen as a liability, drawing Iran fire, rather than being able to repel it.

Qatar’s Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani suggested this week that Doha may be reconsidering its role as host to US forces.

“Qatar has paid a heavy price for the presence of foreign forces on its land,” the minister reportedly said, adding that the country would not allow its territory to damage ties with Tehran. The comments, which have not been confirmed by official sources, also describe Qatar’s relationship with Iran as “a relationship of brothers and siblings, and we will not allow it to be harmed again through Qatari lands”.

It is unclear what the position of most of the other states is on forcing the US out of their countries. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) has reportedly called on the White House to up its attacks on Iran as part of a strategy that could see the Kingdom improve its standing in the region after the war.

But Riyadh’s relations with the White House took a nosedive on April 1 after the Kingdom signed a defence pact with Ukraine for the supply of drones without consulting the White House. Trump was not pleased and said MbS could “kiss my ass.” MbS was not pleased and counted that KSA would no longer purchase US-made weapons.

"We will no longer buy American weapons," the Crowned Prince said in a post on social media. "Until now, the money that flowed into the US military-industrial complex was not merely a matter of trade, but in reality was a ritual of allegiance. It was not simply about purchasing missile systems, but about buying the right to belong. From today, that is over."