Bulgaria’s former president Rumen Radev is on course to secure a parliamentary majority in the country’s snap election, according to parallel vote counts, in what would be the first single-party majority since 1997.

With around 70% of ballots processed, data from Market Links showed Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria on 45.1%, well ahead of its rivals and comfortably above the threshold needed to form a government in the 240-seat National Assembly.

The chamber requires 121 seats for an absolute majority. Market Links projected Progressive Bulgaria would win around 132 seats, giving it the ability to govern without coalition partners.

Under the same projection, GERB–UDF was on 12.6% (37 seats), Change Continues-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) on 11.4% (34 seats), the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) on 8.4% (25 seats) and Vazrazhdane on 4.2% (12 seats).

Separate parallel counting by Alpha Research at 50% of the sample showed similar trends, with Progressive Bulgaria leading on 43.5% and projected to secure 129 seats.

In that projection, GERB–UDF would win 40 seats on 13.5%, PP–DB 36 seats on 12.1%, DPS 23 seats on 7.7%, and Vazrazhdane 12 seats on 4.3%.

Gallup International Balkans, with 87% of its sample counted, also pointed to a clear lead for Progressive Bulgaria at 42.7%, followed by GERB–UDF on 14.8%, PP–DB on 11.9%, DPS on 7.9%, and Vazrazhdane on 4.4%.

The results suggest Bulgaria’s fragmented political landscape may give way to a single dominant force, after years of unstable coalitions and repeated snap elections.

The vote marks the eighth parliamentary election in five years, triggered by the collapse of the previous government in December amid sustained anti-corruption protests.

GERB–UDF, led by former prime minister Boyko Borissov, appears set for one of its weakest performances since 2009, while PP-DB and DPS remain secondary but significant parliamentary forces.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party is hovering near or below the threshold in some counts, raising uncertainty over whether it will enter parliament.

If confirmed, the result would give Radev, who entered party politics after stepping down as president in January, a rare governing majority in Bulgaria’s post-communist era.

He has campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, pledging to dismantle entrenched political and business networks and push institutional reform.

His positions on foreign policy have drawn scrutiny from European partners, who have warned he could resemble a more confrontational, sovereigntist leader, with positions including calls for more pragmatic relations with Moscow, criticism of Western military support for Ukraine and scepticism over Bulgaria’s adoption of the euro.

Serbia’s pro-Russian President Aleksandar Vucic was among the first regional leaders to congratulate Radev, saying the result would strengthen stability and cooperation in the Balkans.

Final official results and seat allocations are expected from the Central Election Commission once counting is complete.