Ukraine faces $46bn in potential foreign currency demand from transactions still subject to restrictions in 2026-2027, limiting the central bank’s scope to rapidly liberalise currency controls as it seeks to protect financial stability and foreign exchange reserves, reported Ukraine Business News.

The National Bank of Ukraine’s estimate, based on first-half results, is $1bn lower than its previous calculation. The regulator favours a gradual approach, warning that lifting restrictions too quickly could trigger substantial outflows from reserves before new capital inflows have time to materialise.

The largest component of the pent-up demand is repayments of outstanding foreign loans by non-bank borrowers, comprising $21bn in principal and $6bn in interest.

Other significant obligations include $9bn in dividends owed by bank clients, $3bn in payments under previous customs declarations and $3bn in Eurobond principal repayments. Banks’ own dividend payments account for a further $2bn, while other banking operations represent $1bn.

Currency liberalisation measures introduced in 2024 and 2025 have reduced the accumulated demand only marginally, the NBU said.

The central bank cited irregular international aid disbursements, potential disruptions to agricultural exports and security risks that discourage investment as reasons for caution. These factors could constrain the supply of foreign currency at a time when businesses and other borrowers may seek to make greater use of previously restricted transactions.

The regulator proposes gradually easing the remaining restrictions after martial law ends, with the pace determined by macroeconomic and financial conditions.