Yields on Ukraine’s hryvnia-denominated government bonds are expected to remain broadly stable in the coming months, analysts said, as the central bank holds off on monetary easing due to rising inflation risks and external uncertainty, reported Ukraine Business News.

Investment group ICU said the Finance Ministry had recently been lowering borrowing costs more aggressively than the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), but the regulator’s decision to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 15% has effectively capped further declines in bond yields.

“The NBU aims to maintain suitable monetary conditions to keep hryvnia instruments attractive, so a reduction in the discount rate is unlikely soon,” ICU analysts said in a note, adding that yields would likely fluctuate only marginally in the near term.

The central bank last week opted to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, delaying earlier expectations of easing as inflation pressures began to build again. Consumer price growth edged up to 7.6% year-on-year in February after a period of decline, driven in part by disruptions in the energy sector and higher prices for everyday goods.

Analysts say geopolitical developments have added to the uncertainty. The conflict in Iran has pushed up global energy prices, feeding into domestic inflation expectations and complicating the outlook for monetary policy.

The NBU has signalled that it remains cautious, noting that it could even raise rates if risks intensify. Maintaining relatively high interest rates is seen as key to supporting demand for hryvnia-denominated assets and preserving stability in the foreign exchange market.

ICU forecasts that the benchmark rate could ease slightly to around 14.5% by the end of 2026, but expects it to remain close to that level rather than fall sharply.