US President Donald Trump will receive Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado at the White House on January 15, a senior administration official confirmed to the press, in a meeting set to expose the awkward dynamics between Washington and the Nobel Peace Prize laureate it has systematically excluded from Venezuela's post-Maduro transition.

The move comes after Trump suggested last week that Machado might be "involved in some aspect" of Venezuela's future, a vague formulation that contrasts sharply with his decision to recognise the interim presidency of Chavista technocrat Delcy Rodríguez, with whom his administration has negotiated arrangements for marketing millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude under American control. Trump has indicated willingness to meet Rodríguez directly, stating he was working "really well" with her, an endorsement Machado has never received.

"I'm going to have to talk to her. She might be involved in some aspect. I'll have to talk to her. I think it's very kind of her to want to come," Trump said when asked whether he would reconsider his position on Machado if she gifted him her Nobel Prize – an offer the 58-year-old firebrand opposition leader made during a Fox News interview last week in what appeared a desperate attempt to salvage her standing with the American president.

The Norwegian Nobel Institute swiftly clarified that prizes cannot be transferred to third parties, rendering Machado's gesture symbolic rather than literal. Yet the offer itself showed how thoroughly Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy has marginalised the Venezuelan leader, whose stand-in candidate Edmundo Gonzalez won more than two-thirds of votes in widely disputed 2024 elections, according to independent monitors.

Trump's decision to work with Rodríguez rather than support Machado's claim to power followed multiple calculations, according to officials and analysts. The Washington Post reported that Trump was unwilling to back Machado after she accepted the Nobel Prize he coveted, with sources close to the White House stating: "If she had turned it down and said, 'I can't accept it because it's Donald Trump's,' she'd be the president of Venezuela today."

However, the administration has also justified the decision on strategic grounds. A classified CIA assessment, reported last week by The New York Times, suggested that maintaining senior Chavista figures rather than promoting the opposition would best secure stability during the period Washington requires for establishing American oil companies' operations without committing ground forces to Venezuela.

White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt insisted on January 12 that "President Trump and his National Security team made a realistic assessment of the situation in Venezuela, and that decision turned out to be the right one." She pointed to cooperation from Venezuelan authorities, a "$500bn energy agreement," and 31mn barrels of oil "already on their way to the US for us to sell, and that money will be deposited into an account controlled by the US government."

Leavitt emphasised that the Rodríguez government agreed to release political prisoners, something the United States “has long wanted to see." Venezuela claimed on January 12 that 116 political prisoners had been released in recent hours, though opposition groups and human rights organisations reported lower figures, suggesting the regime may be inflating numbers to demonstrate compliance with American demands.

The decision to host Machado at the White House, even as the administration defends sidelining her, reflects competing pressures Trump faces. Congressional Republicans including Representative Don Bacon of Nebraska have argued that Washington must install Venezuela's rightfully elected leaders rather than prop up Maduro's former subordinates. Democratic critics including Senator Chris Murphy have slammed the administration's plan as "stealing Venezuelan oil at gunpoint" to "micromanage the country."

Machado boasts influential supporters within American conservative circles who view her as a principled defender of free markets and democracy, credentials that should theoretically align with Republican ideology even as Trump prioritises oil access and stability over electoral legitimacy.

The conservative opposition leader has long sought to position herself as the ideal partner for Trump's Venezuela objectives, promising that under her leadership the country would become "the energy hub of the Americas" with markets opened to foreign investment and rule of law restored. But such promises cannot overcome her fundamental weakness: lacking influence over the Bolivarian National Armed Forces that enabled Maduro's authoritarian rule and now serve the interim government.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, himself a longtime Machado supporter, acknowledged this reality when explaining Washington's approach. "The immediate reality is that, unfortunately and sadly, but unfortunately the vast majority of the opposition is no longer present inside of Venezuela," he told NBC's Meet the Press, justifying cooperation with Rodríguez whilst opposition forces remain in exile or unable to command institutional power.

What Trump offers Machado will signal whether his Venezuela strategy leaves room for genuine democratic voices. Or whether it remains wedded to the impromptu arrangement with Chavista figures expected to deliver oil revenues whilst preserving authoritarian structures under American supervision.