President Donald Trump has said that Washington could reach an agreement with Cuba imminently, a few days after Havana's leader publicly confirmed for the first time that the two governments are holding discussions.

"Cuba also wants to make a deal, and I think we will pretty soon either make a deal or do whatever we have to do," Trump told reporters on March 15 aboard Air Force One. "We're talking to Cuba, but we're going to do Iran before Cuba."

The comments follow an announcement on March 13 by Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel that officials had held talks with US representatives. "These talks have been aimed at finding solutions through dialogue to the bilateral differences we have between the two nations," Díaz-Canel said in a video aired on state television.

The Cuban leader described the contacts as being in an "initial phase" and conducted with strict discretion.

Díaz-Canel said the objective was to identify bilateral problems requiring solutions, explore possible remedies, assess both sides' willingness to take concrete actions, and identify areas for cooperation. He emphasised that exchanges were proceeding "based on the principle of equality and respect between both countries" and with adherence to international law.

The acknowledgement marks a significant shift for a regime that had previously flatly denied or dismissed as "speculation" reports of discussions with Washington. The talks come as Cuba confronts its gravest crisis since the 1950s revolution, with the island teetering on the edge of humanitarian catastrophe.

The severity of the emergency was laid bare over the weekend when protesters in the central city of Morón stormed a provincial Communist Party building, setting it ablaze in an unprecedented act of defiance.

The violence reflects deepening public anger over soaring food prices and relentless power cuts, with blackouts of up to 15 hours daily now commonplace across the island.

In Havana and other cities, residents have increasingly resorted to nighttime protests by banging pots and pans. In a rare public acknowledgement, Díaz-Canel recognised the legitimacy of public grievances over living conditions but warned that acts of violence and vandalism would not be tolerated, whilst pinning blame for the energy crisis on the United States.

The Cuban leader attributed the emergency to US restrictions, stating no petroleum shipments had arrived in over three months. "The government is not to blame, the revolution is not to blame. The energy blockade they have imposed on us is to blame," he said, adding that the fuel shortage has had an "immeasurable impact on the lives of our people".

Cuba generates roughly 40% of its oil needs from domestic sources but requires imports to satisfy demand, with electricity production dependent on ageing Soviet-era oil-fired plants. Venezuela, once a close ideological ally, had supplied the bulk of Cuban petroleum for over two decades until the January 3 US operation that resulted in Nicolás Maduro's capture and severed Caracas's subsidised oil flows to Havana.

Mexico, another key supplier, halted shipments after Trump signed an executive order on January 29 declaring Cuba an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to US national security and threatening punitive tariffs against any country supplying oil to the communist-run island.

Cuba's electricity system has reached crisis levels, with blackouts affecting up to 70% of the country during peak hours and residents in several provinces enduring outages of up to 20 hours daily. Hospitals have curtailed surgical procedures, schools have cancelled classes and rubbish goes uncollected on Havana's streets as fuel-dependent municipal services grind to a halt.

Jet fuel became unavailable last month at all airports, forcing international airlines to suspend service and dealing a severe blow to the tourism sector, a vital source of foreign currency. Meanwhile, a massive US naval deployment in the Caribbean has reinforced Washington's pressure campaign, successfully deterring multiple attempted fuel deliveries.

The island's economic downfall has been exacerbated by over 60 years of crippling US sanctions, economic mismanagement and the recent disruption of oil imports.

According to Axios, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban American and longtime advocate of overthrowing the communist regime, has been conducting backchannel discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro. The engagement circumvents formal diplomatic contacts and demonstrates the administration's belief that the 94-year-old former leader wields more influence than Díaz-Canel.

CNN reported that Rodríguez Castro made a notable public appearance on March 13 alongside Díaz-Canel at multiple official functions, prompting speculation among analysts about his position within Cuba's power structure. The younger Castro was present both at a session with Communist Party and Council of Ministers leadership and at the subsequent press conference during which the president acknowledged ongoing discussions with the White House.

The 41-year-old previously served as his grandfather's personal security chief and is widely known in Cuba by the nickname "Raulito". His father, General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, who died in 2022, headed GAESA, the sprawling military-run business conglomerate that controls significant portions of Cuba's economy.

"What strikes me is that it's happening publicly now, but what we should really ask ourselves is how long he has been acting as this channel of communication," said Diana Correa, director of the international relations programme at Tecnológico de Monterrey, as quoted by CNN.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a Caribbean Community gathering in St Kitts and Nevis in late February, Rubio addressed the Cuba crisis without confirming specific discussions. "Cuba needs to change. It needs to change. And it doesn't have to change all at once," Rubio said on February 25. "And they need to make those dramatic reforms that open the space for both economic and eventually political freedom for the people of Cuba, obviously the United States would love to see that."

Trump has made a series of increasingly bold statements about Cuba in recent weeks, suggesting the island was on the verge of collapse and eager to reach an agreement. He has floated the possibility of a "friendly takeover" of Cuba before adding: "It may not be a friendly takeover."

During the “Shield of the Americas” summit with conservative Latin American leaders on March 7, Trump declared that "Cuba's at the end of the line, they're very much at the end of the line. They have no money. They have no oil. They have a bad philosophy; they have a bad regime that's been bad for a long time."

Despite the renewed contact, significant differences remain between the two governments. US officials have suggested any easing of pressure would likely depend on political and economic concessions from Havana, whilst Cuban leaders insist negotiations must respect the island's independence and sovereignty.

Trump told reporters last week that he expected developments within approximately two weeks. As he welcomed Inter Miami's Major League Soccer championship team to the White House, he told Cuban-American businessman Jorge Mas Santos he would soon be able to fly to Cuba without presidential approval.

However, the president has not yet decided on a specific course of action, with his attention currently directed primarily toward the escalating conflict with Iran following joint US-Israeli airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28.

Trump has set regime change in Cuba as a goal by the end of 2026, though unlike Venezuela with its vast oil reserves and functioning opposition parties, Cuba offers Washington fewer levers for engineering political transformation.