Mass protests continued overnight across Iran on January 10 with huge crowds filling the regional cities of Saadatabad, Yusefabad, Gohardasht, Shadabad and more in Tehran. Demonstrators also rallied in Shiraz, Ketar, Isfahan and Astara, as every single one of the 31 provinces in the country is now in open revolt.

Reports from Abiyek and Tehran say security forces once again opened live fire on unarmed people. As many as 4,000 people may have been killed overnight, IntelliNews Tehran staff report, citing local unconfirmed reports. If confirmed, that would make the death toll several times higher than the last lethal protests in 2019 when an estimated 1,500 died. Bullet casings are visible on streets once regime units pulled back. In some areas clashes turned very violent, and protesters even set fire to regime buildings.

Another mosque was torched during protests in Tehran. Fireworks were set off over Tehran’s Punak Square as demonstrators banged pots and shouted slogans in support of the Pahlavi rulers ousted after the 1979 Islamic revolution, videos showed, The Guardian reports.

Crowds of protesters also marched through the streets of Iran’s second largest city of Mashhad as fires burned around them, a show of defiance in the home town of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has condemned the protesters as “vandals” and blamed the US for fanning the flames of dissent.

Anti-government protesters blocked major roadways and intersections in the high-class luxury neighbourhood of Punak in northern Tehran, with crowd estimates of between 100,000-200,000, according to bloggers.

The BBC reported that hospitals in Tehran were overwhelmed by the inflow of casualties, many of which had been shot in the head or heart by snipers. Others were killed by indiscriminate machine gun fire or had eye injuries from birdshot fired by police into crowds.

The internet is still blocked and on January 10 the authorities turned off the power completely, leaving protestors to march by the light of their mobile phones. However, the use of satellite Starlink dishes is growing and more information is trickling out of the country. Despite the blackout, videos and eyewitness accounts show tens of thousands still in the streets night after night.

Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi called on the people for a third time in three days  to occupy the city centres “and defend them.” He cautioned crowds not to go down side streets, but to remain together on the main thoroughfares and called for a third mass rally on January 11 starting at 6pm.

The protests are increasingly violent with demonstrators reportedly setting 27 government buildings in the capital on fire. The authorities have threatened to retaliate and execute anyone caught committing acts of arson. According to unconfirmed reports, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officers are visiting hospitals and arresting anyone with gunshot wounds, removing them before they have had a chance to receive medical attention.

The situation remains fluid with the authorities under extreme pressure. Israeli analysts say that a sudden collapse of the regime is possible, but more likely is there will be changes in the leadership in response to what is now probably the largest protest since the 1979 revolution that brought the Islamic Republic to power.

US President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene to “help” the protestors if the regime kills innocent demonstrators in what is widely interpreted to mean missile strikes on military bases and government buildings. However, military analysts say that with no ships in the Gulf a US strike is at least several days to a week away.

Pahlavi calls for the capture of city centres

For the third straight night, mass protests across Iran are shaking the regime, according to the crowned prince Pahlavi. He gave another video address to the people, claiming that parts of the armed forces are abandoning their posts or refusing orders to suppress people.

He calls on Iranians to keep taking to the main streets at 6pm Sunday, stay in groups, avoid side routes, and don’t leave the streets. “You are not alone,” he said, echoing a vintage protest chant from previous uprisings. “The free world is watching, especially President Trump, and stands with your revolution.”

“The regime is weak, relying only on a small group of foreign mercenaries. They will face justice. I’ll be with you very soon,” Pahlavi said.

Death toll continues to rise

As bne IntelliNews reported, at least 200 people have been killed since the start of the demonstrations on December 28, but that number almost certainly increased dramatically in the last 24 hours. As bne IntelliNews reported, deaths have been a regular feature of protests in Iran, with the worst in 2019 when a reported 1,500 died in the unrest.

Hospitals across Iran have been overwhelmed by the dead and injured as security forces used live ammunition and pellets against anti-government protesters, according to medical staff who spoke to the BBC.

Staff at several hospitals said they were struggling to cope with the scale of casualties as demonstrations that began in Tehran over economic hardship spread to more than 100 cities and towns across all of Iran’s provinces. BBC Persian has confirmed the identities of 26 people killed, including six children, in the evening of January 10.

A medic at one hospital in Tehran told the BBC there were “direct shots to the heads of the young people, to their hearts as well”, while another hospital worker described “very horrible scenes” as casualties flooded emergency wards.

“Around 38 people died. Many as soon as they reached the emergency beds,” she said. “The number was so large that there wasn’t enough space in the morgue; the bodies were placed on top of one another.”

Medical workers said those killed or wounded were mostly young. “Couldn’t look at many of them, they were 20-25 years old,” the hospital worker added.

BBC Persian verified that 70 bodies were brought to Poursina Hospital in the northern city of Rasht in one night. With the morgue full, bodies were removed elsewhere. A hospital source said authorities demanded IRR7bn (£5,222; $7,000) to release bodies to families for burial.

A video from Al-Ghadir Hospital in Tehran released on social media shows a hall full of body bags where relatives have gone to collect their dead.

Doctors reported widespread use of shotguns firing bird shot pellets, a tactic frequently deployed by Iranian security forces. A doctor in Kashan said many injured protesters had been hit in the eyes, while another medic in Tehran said: “I saw one person who had been shot in the eye, with the bullet exiting from the back of his head.”

Tehran’s main eye specialist centre, Farabi Hospital, went into crisis mode, suspending non-urgent admissions as emergency cases surged, according to a doctor who contacted the BBC via a Starlink satellite connection.

Iranian authorities denied fatalities in Tehran, while acknowledging extensive damage to public buildings. One human rights group said at least 14 members of the security forces had been killed.

The US warned that killing protesters would trigger a military response. President Donald Trump wrote on social media: “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”

Regime under pressure

Danny Citrinowicz, a Senior Researcher in the Iran and the Shi'ite Axis Program at the Institute for National Security Studies and former head of Israel Defence Intelligence (IDI), said that the Iranian regime is confronting its most serious wave of unrest in decades, but warned that widespread speculation about its imminent collapse is premature. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is signalling a hardening stance as loyalist forces tighten control. Despite the violence so far, the authorities have not yet unleashed a full scale crackdown that could see hundreds, and possibly thousands, die in a confrontation.

Citrinowicz said that “reports of the collapse of cities, the defection of senior officials, and the preparation of a refuge for the Iranian supreme leader in Russia are part of an ongoing effort to create the feeling that the regime is just days away from collapse”. However, the Islamic Republic has no intention of stepping down, he added.

“Khamenei's speech yesterday likely signalled a significant increase in the regime's repressive efforts,” he wrote on social media. “So, it appears that there were serious clashes between protesters and regime officials tonight.”

Despite near-total internet blackouts footage has continued to emerge showing mass gatherings, burning vehicles, and clashes with security forces.

“The regime’s main problem remains — it is unable to stop the protests even after measures such as cutting off the internet,” Citrinowicz said. “This fact and the increase in repression efforts will probably lead to a significant increase in the number of casualties in the coming days.”

Local reports say that the protests are being led by the Gen X 20-something olds, but these young people have also managed to persuade their older relatives to join the demonstrations, swelling the crowds.

Yet Citrinowicz cautioned against assuming regime collapse is imminent. “It should be remembered that the regime in Iran has a stable support base,” Citrinowicz added. “Over 13mn people voted for the ultra-conservative candidate Jalili in the last presidential election. Such a support base constitutes a support for the regime and the activities of the [elite paramilitary] Basij and Revolutionary Guards. These are not going to disappear easily.”

However, as the protests go into their fourteenth day and third day of mass protests, there is no sign of fatigue yet. If anything the numbers of people on the street continue to swell.

On January 10 there were an estimated 1.5-1.85mn demonstrators on the street in 512 locations in 180 cities in every province in the country, according to blogger Iran Spectator.

According to Citrinowicz, Iran’s political system is not monolithic, and internal debates over the government’s response to the unrest are likely ongoing.

“The high probability right now is actually for changes within [the regime], whether a dramatic change in policy led by figures like President [Masoud] Pezeshkian, Ali Larijani with the support of former President Rouhani, or extreme changes if the IRGC takes responsibility for the country.”

He also noted the weakness of the opposition inside Iran, and its fragmentation abroad. “There is no real opposition to the regime inside Iran, while outside Iran the opposition is conflicted and weak, perhaps challenging the regime on a symbolic level... but with no influence on the ground except spreading disinformation.”

Many Iranians who oppose the regime remain fearful of instability if it were to collapse, he said. Other observers have warned that extremists tied to the Khamenei regime like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis would also try to step into the vacuum should the Islamic Republic collapse leading to regional instability.

“There are many people who oppose the regime but at the same time are very afraid of their fate if this regime collapses.”

The most vulnerable institution within Iran’s security system is the army, Citrinowicz argued, while the IRGC remains deeply loyal.

“It is doubtful that we will see any defections in the Revolutionary Guards... but the army is precisely the body that will be challenged given a significant escalation in the regime’s repressive efforts.”

So far, there has been only one report of military personnel laying down their arms and backing the protests, but that might change if Khamenei issues general orders for troops to open fire on large crowds.

“Bottom line: The regime is being challenged with unprecedented demonstrations, perhaps the most serious since the 1979 revolution. But those expecting a rerun of Syria may be disappointed,” he wrote. “The regime still has significant pockets of support that will lead a tough crackdown in the coming days. Based on the protesters’ reactions, significant changes may be taking place within the government ranks before any collapse that might not occur.”

US strikes

US President Donald Trump has threatened to “help” the protestors if the regime kills demonstrators and, as bne IntelliNews reported, the death toll is already well above 200 with more protestors dying every day.

The crisis has presented a dilemma for the US. Trump recently said that “Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!” in a post on his social media channel.

The Pentagon Pizza Report, that tracks pizza sales in Washington, reported that pizza orders from stores near the Pentagon were up by 260% on the evening of January 10 as the US military goes into crisis mode and is gaming out various scenarios of a possible US intervention. The Wall Street Journal reports that officials have already held preliminary discussions on how to follow through on Trump’s threats, with one option being a major aerial strike targeting multiple Iranian military sites.

"To the Iranian people: Your long nightmare is soon coming to a close. Your bravery and determination to end your oppression has been noticed by President Trump and all who love freedom," Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump loyalist, tweeted in support of the protestors.

Another possible scenario is that the US takes advantage of the unrest to cut a new diplomatic deal with Tehran that it was pushing for last year without success in which Iran forgoes enriching uranium on its territory.

A US strike on military and government targets in Tehran is at least a week away. according to military analysts. There is not a single US Carrier Strike Group currently deployed to the Middle East, and the closest carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), is in the South China Sea and would take several days if not a week to reach Iran.

It is extremely unlikely that the US would launch strikes against Iran without a carrier - or two - in the region, say military experts.

“If Trump does order a strike against Iran, it likely won’t take place for at least a week and preparations would be very evident from movements by the US Navy and Air Force,” military blogger OSINTdefender said in a post on social media.

Iran’s speaker of the parliament warned that if the US does strike Iran the response would be overwhelming and Iran would “light up” Israel and US bases in the region. Israel has gone on high alert ahead of a possible renewed hostilities following last summer’s short war.

As part of last summer’s war, Iran launched a symbolic handful of easily interceptable missiles at a US base in Qatar, warning the Americans of the strike beforehand. If the US strikes again, this time Tehran is threatening a much more serious strike on US and Israeli targets in the region.