Taiwan economy flashes red light for ninth month

Taiwan's composite index of economic indicators held at 41 points in August, keeping the gauge in "red" territory for a ninth consecutive month on the back of strong exports and a surging stock market, Focus Taiwan reported on September 29.
The run ties the longest stretch of boom-level readings on record, matching the February to October period of 2021 when the island's economy rebounded sharply from the COVID-19 pandemic. Taiwan, home to the world's largest contract chipmaker, has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of global spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, which has lifted export orders, semiconductor equipment purchases and equity prices.
The National Development Council (NDC) uses a five-colour system to track economic conditions. Red points to a booming or possibly overheating economy, green to stable conditions and blue to weakness, with yellow-red and yellow-blue marking transitions. Scores between 38 and 45 fall into the red band. The index reached an all-time high of 42 points in January 1984.
All nine components of the August index were unchanged from July. Share price movements, industrial production, merchandise exports, imports of machinery and electrical equipment, manufacturing sales and revenue from retail, wholesale and food and beverage businesses each flashed red. Money supply stayed green, while overtime hours in the industrial and service sectors and manufacturers' business sentiment remained yellow-red.
Chen Mei-chu, head of the NDC's Department of Economic Development, said Taiwan could post another red light in September, with the AI boom and the traditional peak season in the global technology market expected to lift exports and private investment. A jump in US Treasury yields could raise borrowing costs for American companies, but cloud service providers are likely to keep spending heavily on AI infrastructure, she said, which should support Taiwan's growth momentum.
The leading indicators index, which looks six months ahead, rose 0.51% from July to 104.41. Export orders, share prices, the total floor area of new construction projects, semiconductor equipment imports and manufacturers' business sentiment all advanced, while money supply and employment fell.
August was the 13th straight monthly gain for the leading index, which has climbed 6.06% over that period.
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