South Africa has lost its long-held position as Africa’s leading vehicle manufacturer after Morocco overtook it in total output in 2025, according to reporting by Business Insider Africa and industry data.

Morocco produced around a million vehicles in 2025, crossing the milestone in December and surpassing South Africa’s annual output. South Africa’s vehicle production stood at about 554,613 units between January and November 2025, a modest gain compared with prior years.

The shift comes despite strong domestic demand in South Africa. New vehicle sales reached nearly 597,000 units in 2025, one of the strongest performances in recent years.

Export revenue and volumes

Morocco’s automotive industry has become a major export generator. In recent years, vehicle exports reportedly reached about $14bn annually, making the sector one of the country’s largest exporters of goods. Approximate estimates indicate that Morocco’s automotive export value could continue rising beyond this level as production scales further and free-trade access enhances market reach.

South Africa’s automotive export performance also remains significant. According to NAAMSA data for 2023, the combined export value of vehicles and automotive components — including passenger cars and parts — reached R270.8 billion ($13.9 bn), an increase from R227.3bn in 2022.

In 2024, exports from South Africa continued to gain traction, with Volkswagen Group Africa exporting a record 131,485 Volkswagen Polo vehicles from its Kariega plant in the Eastern Cape to Europe and Asia-Pacific markets, accounting for roughly 88% of South Africa’s total vehicle exports that year.

OEM production volumes by plant

South Africa’s automotive output is anchored by major global manufacturers with local assembly capacity:

• Volkswagen Group Africa (VOWG_p.DE) operates a large assembly plant in Kariega (Eastern Cape), which in 2024 produced high volumes of the Volkswagen Polo and Polo Vivo hatchbacks, with substantial shipments to export markets.
• Toyota South Africa Motors (TYO:7203) runs the country’s largest vehicle plant in Durban, producing models such as the Toyota Hilux, Corolla Cross, and Fortuner for both local sales and exports.
• Ford Motor Company of Southern Africa (NYSE:F) assembles vehicles at its Silverton plant near Pretoria, having completed a significant investment programme to expand capacity and modernise production.
• Isuzu Motors South Africa (7202.T) manufactures Isuzu D-MAX pickup trucks and medium-heavy commercial vehicles locally and is exploring expanded export volumes to other African markets.

In comparison, Morocco’s automotive ecosystem has rapidly scaled export-oriented output, with major contributions from Stellantis (NYSE:STLA) and Renault Group (EPA:RNO) production hubs in Kenitra and Tangier. A recent expansion plan by Stellantis aims to boost annual capacity to 535,000 vehicles at its Kenitra plant, including electric and hybrid models, under a €1.2bn ($1.4 bn) investment.

Drivers of divergence

Analysts and industry observers cited by local media attribute Morocco’s ascent to a long-term industrial strategy of tax incentives, free-trade access and early EV investment, while South Africa has grappled with structural headwinds such as energy constraints, policy delays, and rising tariffs in key export markets. South Africa’s late-arriving EV incentives, set to begin in March 2026, are seen as potentially too late to influence major manufacturing investment decisions already made abroad.

Despite retaining substantial manufacturing assets and skilled labour, South Africa has struggled with consistent export growth and local assembly expansion. The sector’s future competitiveness is widely seen as hinging on policy clarity, reliable energy supply and targeted investment incentives.