Russia has cut its forecast for gas production this year as the EU prepares to stop buying Russian gas altogether, while neighbouring Kazakhstan nearly triples its purchases.

Russia is now expected to produce 683.1bn cubic metres of gas in 2026, 5.3 bcm less than the Economy Ministry forecast in May but still above the 662.7 bcm produced in 2025, according to a draft ministry forecast seen by Reuters on September 23. The ministry still sees output rising to 696.1 bcm in 2027, 710.5 bcm in 2028 and 740.1 bcm in 2029.

LNG exports are forecast to rise to 35mn tonnes this year from 30.3mn tonnes in 2025, but that is 5.3mn tonnes less than previously expected. Pipeline exports outside the former Soviet Union are put at 77 bcm, slightly below the earlier forecast.

The cut is small - under 1% of the May forecast (5.3/688.4) - while pipeline deliveries to Europe fell 44% in 2025 to 18 bcm, the lowest since the mid-1970s, after transit through Ukraine ended, against around 180 bcm a year at the 2018-2019 peak. The EU plans to halt all Russian gas purchases from 2027, and Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said this month that China will take more than 60% of Russia's gas exports by 2030.

The Kremlin says Russia is ready to resume supplies to western Europe, including through the one string of the Nord Stream pipeline left intact after the September 2022 explosions, and argues that Europe is hurting itself by buying expensive gas on the spot market instead of cheaper Russian supplies.

Central Asia is taking up some of the slack. Kazakhstan will take 11 bcm of Russian gas this year, up from 4 bcm in 2025, and is discussing about 9 bcm for 2027, Deputy Energy Minister Kairkhan Tutkyshbayev told the Tyumen Industrial and Energy Forum on September 16, Russia's Pivot to Asia reported.

"This year, we had minor technical glitches at our major field. We received 4 bcm last year, and it'll be 11 bcm this year," Tutkyshbayev said. "We signed an addendum to the existing contract. I think we'll be discussing a long-term contract by the end of the year."

Gazprom (MOEX: GAZP) has raised supplies to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan by nearly 70% so far this year, CEO Alexei Miller said on September 4.

Astana also wants the planned Power of Baikal pipeline to China, formerly Power of Siberia 2, to cross Kazakhstan rather than Mongolia so that it can bring gas to its own northeastern regions. "It's now being described as 'Power of Baikal': either via Mongolia or Kazakhstan," Tutkyshbayev said. Kazakhstan signed a strategic partnership with Gazprom in 2023, and the two sides are discussing a 45 bcm a year pipeline that would deliver 10 bcm to northeastern Kazakhstan and 35 bcm to China.

Moscow and Beijing have yet to sign a supply contract for the route, and Putin's latest meeting with Xi Jinping on August 31 ended without a deal.