The Kremlin is discussing restarting the use of the dollar as part of the extensive “Dmitriev package” of business deals that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy claims is worth $12 trillion dollars – or more than five-times the value of the entire Russian economy.

Zelenskiy revealed that Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) had reported to him that head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, has been discussing the package with his counterpart Special Envoy Steve Witkoff in a debrief of local journalists last week after the trilateral Abu Dhabi meeting wrapped up.

The Trump administration has made it very clear from the start of the talks that it is keen to do business with Russia and as bne IntelliNews reported, most of Trump’s foreign policy is rooted in winning minerals deals in an attempt to break China’s monopolistic hold over the production and processing of materials key to US technology.

As a result of the extent of these possible deals – Russia is home to the most critical minerals and rare earth metals (REMs) after China – Trump has been very reluctant to sanction Russia. In previous rounds of negotiations he has also demanded significant sanctions relief for Russia, only to have those calls rejected by the EU.

Doing business between Russia and the US would not be possible without restoring Russia’s right to use the dollar. While in this sanctions relief ideally the EU would have to play along, but it is possible for the US to restore monetary relations without the EU lifting their sanctions.

According to an internal Kremlin document reviewed by Bloomberg, “Russia is considering moving back to the US Dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump.”

This proposal, which would mark a dramatic policy reversal from years of cautious de-dollarisation, outlines collaboration across energy and mineral sectors and envisages “US and Russia working together on fossil fuels, joint investments in natural gas, offshore oil and critical raw material partnerships.” The memorandum suggests significant economic incentives for US companies should the arrangement be finalised, Bloomberg reported.

At the heart of the document is Russia’s possible reintegration into the dollar settlement system — a move that would undo years of Kremlin efforts to de-dollarize and reduce exposure to Western financial architecture in the wake of sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Foreign exchange markets have reacted with heightened volatility to the prospect, as a shift back to dollar-denominated trade could recalibrate global currency flows and trade settlements.

Following its expulsion from the SWIFT international payments network in the first week of the war in 2022, Russia aggressively expanded alternative mechanisms including its own Financial Communications System (SPFS) messaging system to bypass Western financial controls. China has followed suit with its China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) that is growing fast.

The Kremlin also pressured European buyers of Russian natural gas to settle transactions in rubles, a notable departure from the dollar and euro-based settlement norms of the pre-war era. In recent years, Russia has also facilitated a broader shift among BRICS nations towards local currency settlement. Roughly 60–67% of intra-BRICS trade now bypasses the dollar — a trend that proponents of a multipolar financial order view as central to long-term de-dollarisation.

The Kremlin document, circulated among senior officials earlier this year, frames economic cooperation with the US not simply as a trade opportunity but as a linchpin in broader geopolitical negotiations, including proposals linked to a peace settlement over Ukraine.

Analysts note that restarting commercial relations with the US gives Russian President Vladimir Putin useful leverage in his increasingly dependent relation with Beijing. China is Russia’s biggest trade partner, but exports by China to Russia remain a small fraction of its total export profile.

Energy remains a central component of both Russia’s economic might and its diplomatic leverage over China. Washington’s interest in joint fossil fuel projects and natural gas investments is a central interest of the Trump administration.

Zelenskiy was already unhappy with the reports on the Dmitriev package which will undermine western support for Ukraine and go a long way to legitimising the Putin regime, warning that proposals involving sanctions relief and joint infrastructure projects could undermine Kyiv’s sovereignty.

On the Russian side, hardline voices remain sceptical of closer ties with Washington. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently asserted there was no “bright future” for economic relations with the US, accusing Washington of seeking “economic dominance” and pushing back against Russian integration within Western markets.

The US dollar’s dominance in international finance has been under pressure in recent years, with Russia and China being amongst the most active advocates for dumping the dollar. However, if Trump brings Russia back into the dollar-use fold this would slow the process significantly – especially in the energy markets, where countries are increasing the use of their national currencies to settle bills. The Kremlin has long-expressed the desire to set up a ruble-based international oil exchange in St Petersburg, without making much progress.

With other alternatives such as a potential BRICS Pay digital currency waiting in the wings and growing use of local settlement arrangements challenging its primacy, the dollar’s status as global reserve currency is clearly under threat.

For financial markets, the prospect of Russia’s reintegration into dollar systems is a potential inflection point. Investors will closely monitor the implications for currency markets, commodity pricing and geopolitical risk premiums.