The US is stepping up efforts to advance a political transition in Venezuela, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying formal negotiations involving the interim government and opposition representatives are expected to begin in the first week of August.

Speaking on July 19 before departing for the Philippines to attend an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit, Rubio described the floated agreement as a “very powerful offer” and said Washington would remain closely involved as the process develops. 

The process will bring together the post-Chavista government led by interim President Delcy Rodríguez and figures from the opposition-controlled National Assembly elected in 2015, which Washington recognises as Venezuela’s last democratically elected legislature. The initiative is being developed as the US seeks to encourage a political framework focused on restoring democratic institutions and eventually holding elections.

Dinorah Figuera, president of the 2015 Assembly, has emerged as a central figure in the talks. She returned to Venezuela in June after eight years abroad and has since been setting the stage for negotiations with National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez, Delcy Rodríguez’s brother, with US backing. Figuera said “all democratic sectors” would be invited to participate in the negotiations, which she described as an effort to rebuild Venezuela’s institutions and secure a peaceful and democratic electoral transition.

The process, kickstarted by the US capture of then-president Nicolas Maduro in January, is also exposing divisions within the opposition over who should represent the country’s democratic forces. Opposition leader María Corina Machado, who remains in exile, has maintained that she should take responsibility for negotiating with Rodríguez. Her position has created friction as Washington has instead supported Figuera, who is viewed as a more conciliatory figure for the dialogue process.

Machado's efforts to return to Venezuela have also been hampered by divisions within the White House over her potential role and restrictions on her travel, as the Trump administration instead chose to work with Rodríguez on a three-phase plan for the country's stabilisation. Despite remaining outside the country, she has continued to play a prominent role within the opposition.

Former presidential candidate Henrique Capriles has warned that any negotiations excluding Machado and her political movement are destined to fail, arguing that the process should prioritise unity.

The negotiations are unfolding as Venezuela faces the difficult task of recovering from devastating earthquakes that struck the country on June 24, killing more than 5,200 people and injuring over 16,700, as per the government's latest figures, while causing up to $37bn in damage, according to UN estimates.

The widespread destruction has increased pressure for political cooperation and a government capable of managing reconstruction and economic recovery, as the interim cabinet has faced criticism for its slow response in launching rescue missions. Rubio said the US has already provided $180mn of the $300mn it pledged in assistance to Venezuela.

"I think we’re trying to help them get access to global funding and credit as well for their rebuilding.  They’re still working through an estimate on the total cost, and it’ll be substantial – both removal of the debris and building new things," he added.