Romania’s general government debt (chart) increased by RON22.5bn (€4.3bn) in May to RON1.19 trillion, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio up to 61.4%, according to data published by the Finance Ministry.

The ratio increased by 1.2 percentage points from 60.2% at the end of April and has remained above the 60% threshold since March. The May figure, as well as the April figure, is subject to revision following the release of second-quarter GDP data, which will be used to calculate the April and May ratios. The debt ratio at end-March is likely to remain above 60% even after the final first-quarter GDP figures are incorporated.

The increase in debt reflected both new borrowing and the impact of the Romanian leu's depreciation against the euro. The currency weakened from RON5.14 per euro at the end of April to RON5.25 one month later, increasing the local-currency value of foreign-denominated debt.

Foreign-currency debt rose by only €134mn to €126.6bn when measured in euros during May. However, its value in lei increased by RON14.3bn, with over €2.5bn of that increase attributable to the exchange-rate effect rather than additional borrowing.

Domestic-currency debt also increased, rising by RON8.2bn, reflecting the net issuance of new government debt, particularly government bonds. But the total issuance of new public debt remained below €2.3bn compared to the €4.2bn increase in the stock of public debt (FX change effects included).

Romania's debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 59.3% at the end of 2025, when the 60% threshold had not yet been breached. The increase highlights the sensitivity of the country's public debt metrics to currency movements, with 53% of government debt denominated in foreign currency, according to Fitch's July 2026 sovereign update.

In its August sovereign update, Moody's forecast government debt to reach 64.5% of GDP in 2028, up from 59.3% in 2025. Fitch has a similar 2028 projection, while the median for similarly rated sovereigns is forecast at 57.9%.

The exchange-rate effect was also visible (but milder) during the first quarter, when the leu traded at about RON5.10 per euro at the end of 2025 but RON 5.14 at the end of March.